26 Jan 11 - Winter storm watches are in effect tonight for southern New England including Boston, New York City, Philadelphia and Washington, D.C. Also for parts Virginia, West Virginia, North Carolina and Kentucky. Further south, winter storm warnings have been issued for much of Tennessee and parts of Mississippi and Alabama.
The New York City area can expect 4 to 8 inches of snow with 10 inches or more in some locations, CNN Meteorologist Sean Morris said.
Boston may get up to a foot of snow, Washington, D.C. could see 5 or more inches, while Philadelphia could see 5 to 8 inches.
In Philadelphia, snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour are possible on Wednesday evening, according to Morris.
The storm may cause long delays and flight cancellations at airports in northeastern and Washington airports, Morris said.
http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2011/01/25/noreaster-set-for-major-metro-areas-wednesday/
Thanks to Keith Connelly for this link
Thanks to Keith Connelly for this link
Mystery: over 200 pelicans have washed up dead on North Carolina beach
January 26, 2011 - Topsail Beach, NC – “Preliminary necropsies by the University of Georgia on some of the more than 200 Brown Pelicans that have washed up on the shores of Topsail Beach on the coast of southeastern North Carolina are inconclusive and do not yet support concerns that foul play was responsible. Complete toxicology and pathology reports are expected to be available soon. A taskforce including officials from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, as well as state officials, has been formed and has been meeting to investigate the deaths, but so far has not determined a cause. The first dead birds began washing up on shore in November. “Mass bird deaths such as this are certainly troubling and need to be investigated, but they are not especially rare. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, about 160 mass wildlife death events are recorded in the U.S. each year. Sometimes they are weather related and sometimes they are caused by pollution, parasites or diseases, but they frequently have a human component,” said Dr. Moira McKernan, Director of the Bird Pesticide Program with American Bird Conservancy, the nation’s leading bird conservation organization. While local reports describe injuries to the pelicans such as broken beaks and gashes on the wings, local officials are quick to point out that such damage is consistent with post mortem scavenging by crabs or other animals, either in the water or onshore, and need not indicate deliberate wounding as a cause of death. The otherwise good physical condition of the birds suggests they were actively feeding immediately prior to the time of death. Reports indicate that the stomach contents of the birds was also normal.” -Surfbird News
Small magnitude quake shakes Mount St. Helens
January 26, 2011 – MBOY, Wash. — “A small earthquake occurred on Mount St. Helens earlier today. The micro earthquake hit just after 7:30 a.m. and came in as a magnitude 2.1 quake. A micro quake is a very low intensity earthquake which is usually a 3.0 or less in magnitude. The epicenter of the quake in the Mount St. Helens Volcano was 24 miles northeast of Amboy. The latest report from the Cascades Volcano Observatory says the volcano is at a normal level of seismicity.” -KPTV Fox 12
Mount Kirishima volcano in Japan explodes violently
January 26, 2011 – JAPAN -”A spectacular volcanic eruption is currently under way in Japan. The mountain Kirishima is firing red-hot magma and volcanic bombs into the air. Mount Kirishima, a volcano on the southern island of Kyushu, began erupting on Jan. 26. A giant ash cloud poured from the volcano, prompting the Tokyo VAAC to issue an ash warning for places above 25,000 feet (7.6 kilometers). Volcanic material shot from the crater, triggering pyroclastic flows, according to the blog Big Think. Kirishima ejected volcanic bombs — lava fragments that are rounded as they fly through the air — more than a mile (2 kilometers) high from its vent, according to news reports. Images of the eruption show plumes of glowing material shooting a few hundred feet in the air. A volcanic vent is a gap in the Earth’s crust through which lava and volcanic gases can escape. Kirishima technically refers to a larger group of volcanic vents on the island. These vents are quite active but mostly have small explosive eruptions. The latest eruption may be the largest since 1959.” -Our Amazing Planet
6.1 earthquake strikes off the coast of Indonesia
January 26, 2011 - JAKARTA, Indonesia — “A strong earthquake has hit waters off western Indonesia, but there were no immediate reports of injuries or damage. The U.S. Geological Survey said Wednesday night’s quake had a preliminary magnitude of 6.1. It struck off Simeulue, an island Sumatra’s western coast, at a depth of 17 miles (27 kilometres). Indonesia is located on the Pacific “Ring of Fire,” an arc of volcanos and fault lines encircling the Pacific Basin.” -AP
Heavy snowfall across the globe causing more roof collapses
January 26, 2011 – EDMONTON, Alberta — About 150 people narrowly avoided injury Tuesday when the snow-covered roof of a seniors recreation center in Edmonton, Alberta, collapsed, officials said. Among those scurrying to safety at the Northgate Lions Senior Citizens Recreation Center were 30 members of a choir, who were rushed out of a gymnasium when staff noticed ceiling tiles coming loose and the roof starting to bow. The roof came down almost immediately after everyone in the gym and the center’s multipurpose rooms were evacuated, the Canadian Broadcasting Corp. reported. “People had to run out without their coats and without their purses in some cases,” Rob Smythe of the city’s Community Services Department told the CBC. Edmonton has experienced a relatively snowy January. An official said all city buildings would be checked to guard against another roof collapse. -UPI Russia – “ONE person was killed and at least 13 injured today when the roof of a shopping centre collapsed under the weight of snow in Saint Petersburg, Russia. Around 100 rescuers were working through the night in search of any survivors who might be trapped in the rubble. “One person has been killed, an employee of the Okey hypermarket, aged 35, and one has been seriously injured,” said Andrei Alyabiyev, a spokesman for Russia’s emergencies ministry. Emergency services said 13 people had been injured, including 10 who were being treated in a hospital for broken bones and concussions.” -New.com.au
Japan's Mount Kirishima Volcano Erupts Explosivelylink
A spectacular volcanic eruption is currently under way in Japan. The mountain Kirishima is firing red-hot magma and volcanic bombs into the air.Mount Kirishima, a volcano on the southern island of Kyushu, began erupting on Jan. 26. A giant ash cloud poured from the volcano, prompting the Tokyo VAAC to issue an ash warning for places above 25,000 feet (7.6 kilometers).
Volcanic material shot from the crater, triggering pyroclastic flows, according to the blog Big Think.
Kirishima ejected volcanic bombs — lava fragments that are rounded as they fly through the air — more than a mile (2 kilometers) high from its vent, according to news reports. Images of the eruption show plumes of glowing material shooting a few hundred feet in the air. A volcanic vent is a gap in the Earth's crust through which lava and volcanic gases can escape.
Kirishima technically refers to a larger group of volcanic vents on the island. These vents are quite active but mostly have small explosive eruptions. The latest eruption may be the largest since 1959.
Great Depression, Debt and Economic Decline: Ireland, Portugal, Greece, US, UK ~ link ~
It is almost as though the Fed, the White House and the House and Senate had planned to do just about everything wrong. All we hear from the illegal alien who is President is that we must have shared sacrifice. That is why we have no win wars to keep the economy going and government loots social Security and Medicare. Have no fear the double dip is on the way even though it spends 60% more than incoming revenues. Neither party has any intention of changing this situation. This year we will experience a decline in all personal purchase categories contrary to what the Fed and the Treasury would like. That means revenues will fall again and debt will increase.
Canadian Arctic basks under record mildness ~ link ~ Another sign that the Thermohaline Circulation System has been seriously damaged by the BP Oil Disaster and its killing of the Loop Current (a key part of the System). Stirling
Over the last month, the high Arctic in Canada has been experiencing record warmth -- with the average temperatures over a 29-day period more than 21 degrees above normal.
Food Crisis II
It’s a story most people don’t realize could make a huge impact on all of our portfolios in a number of ways.
“US Crop Stock Forecasts Deepen Fears of Food Crisis” read a recent Financial Times headline. The US government cut its estimate for key crops. This came only a week after the UN warned the world faces “food price shock.” Corn and soybean prices jumped and now sit at 30-month highs. Inventories are very tight. Corn is up 94% since June!
And the world worries about a repeat of 2008, when food riots erupted in poor countries around the world.
This has been in the works for a long time. It was there for all to see. The ratio of arable land to people has been falling for decades. Gains in crop yields have slowed. Population has expanded and income levels have grown. Diets have shifted. More people are eating more meat, which is much more grain-intensive to produce.
And the love affair with biofuels puts food production in direct competition with energy. Plus, there are water scarcity issues affecting food supply. My readers have made tremendous gains from this trend by owning shares of agricultural fertilizer producers Potash (POT) and Mosaic (MOS).
I should also make the point that this fits in with another topic I’m concerned about: inflation. Now, the man on the street uses the term “inflation” to mean when prices for everything seem to go up. Or put another way, inflation is when the dollars in his pocket buy less. In truth, this is the effect of inflation. The root cause is simply money printing. When you print more money, that money has less value than if you didn’t print any new money at all.
So what we are seeing with rising commodity prices is not only the supply and demand story I led off with. It’s also the effect of paper money losing its purchasing power in the real world of things. This, too, was easy enough to see. Finally, all that money printing – the “quantitative easing” baloney you’ve heard about – is coming home to roost.
Still, it’s disconcerting to see it all playing out. For the sake of our world, I’d rather have gotten this one wrong. But we have to deal with the market we are in. So what might “Food Crisis II” mean from an investment point of view?
Food prices will have to rise: There is no way around this. We are all going to pay more for food. Wells Fargo predicts US retail food prices will rise about 4% this year. Some things will go up much more. Pork and beef could rise more than 10%.
This won’t necessarily mean that meat producer stocks are good buys, because they may not get to raise prices to fully offset the rise in feed costs. Anecdotally, for instance, The Wall Street Journal cited a Minnesota 300-cow operation that reported feed costs had doubled. Plus, I’ve listened in to the conference calls of a number of food producers – Tyson, Hormel, and Sanderson Farms. They all talk about getting squeezed by rising feed costs.
I do think these companies will be good buys sometime this year, because people will adapt and farmers will respond. Producers won’t produce meat at a loss for long. And farmers will bring every resource they have to bear. It’s been slow getting the crops in the ground so far in many places. But ultimately, there is a lot of potential supply from Brazil and the US.
Still, weather is the big wild card here. If we have a drought in the US or in Brazil, this could really get ugly.
Emerging markets are vulnerable: This follows from the above. It doesn’t really faze the typical American to have to pay 4% more at the grocery store. Food is still such a small part of the typical American’s budget. I think Michael Pollan in The Omnivore’s Dilemma points out that the US spends 9% of its income on food, which is among the lowest percentage of any people anywhere at any time in history.
The same is not true in India or China or many emerging markets. In China, people spend 50% of every incremental dollar on food. And in India, it’s more like 70%. So the rising price of food is felt more keenly in these markets.
The price of food is rising faster in emerging markets, too. In India, food prices are up 18% and at their highest level in a year. China has the same problem. Prices rose 5% in November alone. All around the world, emerging markets have a big problem with rising food prices. Indonesia’s president is trying to get people to grow their own chili peppers. And the South Korean government recently released emergency stores of cabbage, pork, mackerel, radish, and other staples. I could go on and on.
The point is that the emerging markets boom is not going to go far when it faces a food crisis. Already, the markets are starting to reflect this. India’s Sensex was down three straight days and off 6% to start the year. Other markets also started badly. And if China and India and the rest slow down, it’s going to have a huge impact on all those stocks and commodities most sensitive to emerging market growth.
I’m keeping a close eye on these developments. There will be opportunities in this crisis, as with all others. For instance, though rising grain prices are not good for meat producers or emerging markets right now, it’s a boon for fertilizer stocks. As the old golf saying goes, “Every putt makes somebody happy.”
Read more: Food Crisis II http://dailyreckoning.com/food-crisis-ii/#ixzz1CDp9ketC
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