MetOffGate – the questions beginlink

Image via Wikipedia

From the Global Warming Policy Foundation, the questions begin, news coverage follows:
Did UK Government Keep Cold Winter Warning Secret In Run-Up To UN Climate Conference?
Press Release
London, 6 January: The Global Warming Policy Foundation has called on the House of Commons Transport Select Committee to set up a parliamentary inquiry into the winter advice the Government received by the Met Office and the renewed failure of both the Government and local authorities to prepare the UK transport system for the third severe winter in a row.
In a letter to the Chair of the Transport Committee, Louise Ellman, MP, the GWPF stresses that “Lessons have to be learned well in advance of the start of next year’s winter so that we are much better prepared if it is severe again.”
In recent days, the Met Office has stated that it apparently warned the Cabinet Office in late October that the start of the winter would be exceptionally cold. It would appear that the extreme weather warning was kept secret from the public.
According to media reports, the Cabinet Office has been unwilling to confirm whether or not it failed to pass on the Met Office warning to local and road authorities, airports and water companies. Continue reading →

New paper on ARGO data: Trenberth’s ocean heat still missing

Four out of five ARGO data studies now show Ocean Heat Content declining

The latest picture of the ARGO array. - click for details

Readers may recall that Dr. Kevin Trenberth said this in one of the Climategate emails:

“The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can’t.”

Using the ARGO ocean buoy data from Josh Willis, Knox and Douglass still can’t find that missing heat in this paper published in the International Journal of Geosciences, currently in press here.

google map of dead fish and birds across the planet 

Sudden Activity at Katla Volcanolink

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base image credit: Icelandic Met Office
MSB overlay
Having monitored the Katla Volcano since early 2010, a sudden grouping of earthquakes at and around the volcano during the past 24 hours is new cause for concern.
Approximately 50 earthquakes have suddenly popped around the region.
More alarming however are the 6 that have rumbled beneath and within the Katla volcano caldera itself, the most caldera quakes in one day since this author began monitoring it in May, 2010.


If that wasn’t enough cause for concern, earthquakes are also rumbling around the volcano that erupted last April (Eyjafjallajokull), the one that shut down European air traffic for several weeks.
Just a few weeks ago, Eyjafjallajokull began showing signs of activity once again, the activity being new earthquakes. Having been mostly quiet since the eruption ended early last year, Eyjafjallajokull may now be indicating that it has more in store for us.


Of greater overall concern is the Katla volcano. Reason being, it has the potential to explode with up to ten times the force of that of its neighbor, Eyjafjallajokull. The last Katla eruption was during 1918, 92 years ago, and is way overdue for its next wake-up call.
The average time between explosive Katla eruptions has been 52 years since it erupted in 30 AD. Katla has erupted 38 times since.

base image credit: Icelandic Met Office
MSB overlay


Since May, 2010, approximately 132 earthquakes have rumbled within the Katla caldera. The concentration of these earthquakes appear to be located in three general areas, as shown in the following image.
The largest concentration looks to be near the eruption of 1755, with nearly an equal number located near the eruption of 1918. There is also a build up of quakes along the northeast rim.

base image credit: Icelandic Met Office
MSB overlay


We know that it is only a matter of time before this volcano blows its top. The explosion could be the biggest we’ve seen in a long time around this planet.
Katla has exploded with a VEI 5 in the past (that’s pretty big).
Stay tuned.


Update, one comment to this post suggests that new detection equipment has been installed around the Katla – Eyja region. If true (checking on this…), this could explain some of what we may be seeing. My own experience tells me that newly installed systems (any industry) take a while to tweak out issues.
In addition, I have read technical papers regarding the Myrdalsjokull glacier (Katla is underneath) and how fissures in the rock combined with freezing liquid (ice) can generate small earthquakes, shallow earthquakes. Perhaps some of this is due to that as well. It appears that about half of the current quakes of this incident are less than 2 km depth – which theoretically could be from ice quakes, while the rest are much deeper. The remaining number of ‘deeper’ quakes are still more than we’ve seen in quite a while though, prompting a raised eyebrow on the situation.