Electricity shocks hit Melbourne Expect 100 percent increase over next five years link

                      
 

19 Oct 10 - Huge increases in household electricity bills are being blamed on the coldest winter in Melbourne for more than a decade - and a 10 per cent jump in annual power costs.

"Households were using more electricity than they had in 14 years because the winter is the peak demand period," said Ben Freund of price comparison service GoSwitch.

And he warned that "the shock next winter will be bigger — that is guaranteed". "The current conservative forecast is for a 100 per cent (electricity price) increase over the next five years."

See entire article:
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/electricity-shocks-hit-home-20101019-16sdd.html
Thanks to David Newton in Sydney, Australia, for this link    

"So much for global warming us," says David.                                  * * * Americans had better read this, because our government is trying to saddle us with ever higher energy costs. If our present leaders have their way, our energy costs will go far higher than this.

 

Oil prices rise as dollar drops

Oil prices rose on Monday as the dollar hit fresh 15-year lows against the yen after G20 economies agreed to avoid potentially destabilising competitive currency devaluations.

A softer US currency makes dollar-denominated oil cheaper, perking up demand and leading to higher prices.

New York's main contract, light sweet crude for delivery in December, rose 35 cents to 82.04 dollars a barrel.
Brent North Sea crude for December delivery gained 10 cents to 83.06 dollars in midday London trade.
"Oil is heading up as a direct result of the US dollar coming down against the euro and the yen," said Victor Shum, an analyst with energy consultancy Purvin and Gertz.
G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting over the weekend in the South Korean city of Gyeongju agreed on a framework to tackle large current account surpluses and reduce global trade imbalances, but shied away from specific targets.
"The US dollar is weakening because of the agreement out of the G20 finance ministers meeting, namely that there's not going to be competitive currency devaluations," Singapore-based Shum told AFP.
"The market interpreted the agreement as a go-ahead signal to the United States to do a second round of quantitative easing, so the dollar is heading down."
The US Federal Reserve is expected to flood its banking system with money by buying securities as part of efforts to stimulate the economy, a move that would put downward pressure on the dollar.
Shum said a hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean is also helping keep prices higher on fears it could threaten crude oil facilities in the US Gulf Coast.

 

Global food crisis forecast as prices reach record highslink

Cost of meat, sugar, rice, wheat and maize soars as World Bank predicts five years of price

An Indian farming family carry bundles of paddy from a rice field in the northeastern state of Tripura. India has had food price inflation of 17% in the last year. Photograph: AFP/Getty Images Rising food prices and shortages could cause instability in many countries as the cost of staple foods and vegetables reached their highest levels in two years, with scientists predicting further widespread droughts and floods. Although food stocks are generally good despite much of this year's harvests being wiped out in Pakistan and Russia, sugar and rice remain at a record price. Global wheat and maize prices recently jumped nearly 30% in a few weeks while meat prices are at 20-year highs, according to the key Reuters-Jefferies commodity price indicator. Last week, the US predicted that global wheat harvests would be 30m tonnes lower than last year, a 5.5% fall. Meanwhile, the price of tomatoes in Egypt, garlic in China and bread in Pakistan are at near-record levels. "The situation has deteriorated since September," said Abdolreza Abbassian of the UN food and agriculture organisation. "In the last few weeks there have been signs we are heading the same way as in 2008. "We may not get to the prices of 2008 but this time they could stay high much longer." However, opinions are sharply divided over whether these prices signal a world food crisis like the one in 2008 that helped cause riots in 25 countries, or simply reflect volatility in global commodity markets as countries claw their way through recession. "A food crisis on the scale of two or three years ago is not imminent, but the underlying causes [of what happened then] are still there," said Chris Leather, Oxfam's food policy adviser. "Prices are volatile and there is a lot of nervousness in the market. There are big differences between now and 2008. Harvests are generally better, global food stocks are better." But other analysts highlight the food riots in Mozambique that killed 12 people last month and claim that spiralling prices could promote further political turmoil. They say this is particularly possible if the price of oil jumps, if there are further climatic shocks – suchas the floods in Pakistan or the heatwave in Russia – or if speculators buy deeper into global food markets. "There is growing concern among countries about continuing volatility and uncertainty in food markets," said Robert Zoellick, president of the World Bank. "These concerns have been compounded by recent increases in grain prices. "World food price volatility remains significant and in some countries, the volatility is adding to already higher local food prices." The bank last week said that food price volatility would last a further five years, and asked governments to contribute to a crisis fund after requests for more than $1bn (£635m) from developing countries were made. "The food riots in Mozambique can be repeated anywhere in the coming years," said Devinder Sharma, a leading Indian food analyst. "Unless the world encourages developing countries to become self-sufficient in food grains, the threat of impending food riots will remain hanging over nations. "The UN has expressed concern, but there is no effort to remove the imbalances in the food management system that is responsible for the crisis." Mounting anger has greeted food price inflation of 21% in Egypt in the last year, along with 17% rises in India and similar amounts in many other countries. Prices in the UK have risen 22% in three years. The governments of Kenya, Uganda, Nigeria, Indonesia, Brazil and the Philippines have all warned of possible food shortages next year, citing floods and droughts in 2010, expected extreme weather next year, and speculation by traders who are buying up food stocks for release when prices rise. Food prices worldwide are not yet at the same level as 2008, but the UN's food price index rose 5% last month and now stands at its highest level in two years. World wheat and maize prices have risen 57%, rice 45% and sugar 55% over the last six months and soybeans are at their highest price for 16 months. UN special rapporteur on the right to food, Olivier de Schutter, says a combination of environmental degradation, urbanisation and large-scale land acquisitions by foreign investors for biofuels is squeezing land suitable for agriculture. "Worldwide, 5m to 10m hectares of agricultural land are being lost annually due to severe degradation and another 19.5m are lost for industrial uses and urbanisation," he says in a new report. "But the pressure on land resulting from these factors has been boosted in recent years by policies favouring large-scale industrial plantations. "According to the World Bank, more than one-third of large-scale land acquisitions are intended to produce agrofuels." But the World Development Movement (WDM) in London warned that food speculation by hedge funds, pension funds and investment banks was likely to prompt further inflation. According to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, speculators on the trading floor of the Chicago Exchange bought futures contracts for about 40m tonnes of maize and 6m tonnes of wheat in the summer. Longtime hedge fund manager Mike Masters, who has worked with WDM, said: "Because there is already much more capital available in the world than hard commodities, speculators can increase the price of consumable commodities, like foodstuffs or energy, much higher than traditional consumers and producers can react. "When derivative markets are linked to commodity markets, this nearly unlimited capital from the financial sector can cause excessive price volatility." US government reports of much cooler-than-normal water temperatures in the Pacific, which traditionally lead to extreme weather around the world, last week added to food price uncertainties.

 

Cold winds and snow forecast for UK

Winter is due to arrive early, with Arctic air bringing sub-zero temperatures and snow to higher groundlink

Morning fog blankets the valley of the North Tyne near Chollerford, Northumberland after a frosty night. Photograph: Paul Kingston/North News & Pictures Officially British Summer Time has almost another fortnight to run but winter is due to arrive early this year with a blast of Arctic air bringing sub-zero temperatures and a dusting of snow to some parts, forecasters said today. The cold front brought a widespread frost to many parts this weekend. The village of Benson near Wallingford, Oxfordshire, recorded the lowest temperature of -3.5C on Saturday night. The Met Office forecasts that it will get even colder by the middle of the week as Arctic air moves further south. Cold northerly winds are forecast for Tuesday. But it is Wednesday that looks set to be the coldest day of the week with wintry showers affecting the northern half of the UK as well as eastern coastal areas. Other parts will be sunny but cold. Met Office forecaster Robin Downton said: "The main feature this week, particularly on Tuesday and Wednesday, will be that we are going to see air coming southwards all the way from the Arctic. It's going to be distinctly chilly with a chilly wind." He added: "Across the higher ground there will be a bit of snow, mainly the Pennines and the Scottish mountains. "We will all feel the chill for a couple of days, with daytime temperatures in the south around 10C, and a couple of degrees colder in the north." The forecast for the end of week and start of the half-term school holidays is for the unsettled weather to continue, but eventually improve as the wind changes direction. The Met Office six- to 15-day outlook says: "It will be cold in the northerly airflow with the risk of frost under clear skies but temperatures will recover as the winds become westerly." Downton said: "After Wednesday it will probably be a little less cold, but there will be some rain on the way."

Republican congressional candidate says violent overthrow of government is 'on the table'  link

Source: Dallas Morning News
WASHINGTON – Republican congressional candidate Stephen Broden stunned his party Thursday, saying he would not rule out violent overthrow of the government if elections did not produce a change in leadership.
In a rambling exchange during a TV interview, Broden, a South Dallas pastor, said a violent uprising "is not the first option," but it is "on the table." That drew a quick denunciation from the head of the Dallas County GOP, who called the remarks "inappropriate."
Broden, a first-time candidate, is challenging veteran incumbent Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson in Dallas' heavily Democratic 30th Congressional District. Johnson's campaign declined to comment on Broden.
In the interview, Brad Watson, political reporter for WFAA-TV (Channel 8), asked Broden about a tea party event last year in Fort Worth in which he described the nation's government as tyrannical.
"We have a constitutional remedy," Broden said then. "And the Framers say if that don't work, revolution."
Watson asked if his definition of revolution included violent overthrow of the government. In a prolonged back-and-forth, Broden at first declined to explicitly address insurrection, saying the first way to deal with a repressive government is to "alter it or abolish it."

Goldman: The Fed Needs To Print $4 Trillion In New Moneylink

With just over a week left to the QE2 announcement, discussion over the amount, implications and effectiveness of QE2 are almost as prevalent (and moot) as those over the imminent collapse of the MBS system. Although whereas the latter is exclusively the provenance of legal interpretation of various contractual terms, and as such most who opine either way will soon be proven wrong to quite wrong, as in America contracts no longer are enforced (did nobody learn anything from the GM/Chrysler fiasco for pete's sake), when it comes to printing money the ultimate outcome will certainly have an impact. And the more the printing, the better. One of the amusing debates on the topic has been how much debt will the Fed print. Those who continue to refuse to acknowledge that the economy is in a near-comatose state, of course, hold on to the hope that the amount will be negligible: something like $500 billion (there was a time when half a trillion was a lot of money). A month ago we stated that the full amount will be much larger, and that the Fed will be a marginal buyer of up to $3 trillion. Turns out, even we were optimistic. A brand new analysis by Jan Hatzius, which performs a top down look at how much monetary stimulus is needed to fill the estimated 300 bps hole between the -7% Taylor Implied Funds Rate (of which, Hatzius believes, various other Federal interventions have already filled roughly 400 bps of differential) and the existing 0.2% FF rate. Using some back of the envelope math, the Goldman strategist concludes that every $1 trillion in new LSAP (large scale asset purchases) is the equivalent of a 75 bps rate cut (much less than comparable estimates by Dudley, 100-150bps, and Rudebusch, 130bps). In other words: the Fed will need to print $4 trillion in new money to close the Taylor gap. And here we were thinking the economy is in shambles. Incidentally, $4 trillion in crisp new dollar bills (stored in bank excess reserve vaults) will create just a tad of buying interest in commodities such as gold and oil...
Here is the math.
First, Goldman calculates that the gap to close to a Taylor implied funds rate is 7%.

Our starting point is Chairman Bernanke?s speech on October 15, which defined the dual mandate as an inflation rate of ?two percent or a bit below? and unemployment equal to the committee?s estimate of the long-term sustainable rate. The Fed?'s job is then to provide just enough stimulus or restraint to put the forecast for inflation and unemployment on a ?glide path? to the dual mandate over some reasonable period of time. Indeed, Fed officials have implicitly pursued just such a policy since at least the late 1980s.

To quantify the Fed?s approach, we have estimated a forward-looking Taylor-style rule that relates the target federal funds rate to the FOMC?s forecasts for core PCE inflation and the unemployment gap (difference between actual and structural unemployment). At present, this rule points to a desired federal funds rate of -6.8%, as shown in Exhibit 1.3 Since the actual federal funds rate is +0.2%, our rule implies on its face that the existence of the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates  has kept the federal funds rate 700 basis points (bp) ?too high.?

It is important to be clear about the meaning of this ?policy gap.? It does not mean?as is sometimes alleged?that policy is tight in an absolute sense, much less that it will necessarily push the economy back into recession. In fact, policy as measured by  the real federal funds rate of -1% is very easy. However, our policy rule implies that under current circumstances?with the Fed missing to the downside on both the inflation and employment part of the dual mandate (and by a large margin in the  latter case) ?a very easy policy is not good enough. Instead, policy should be massively easy to facilitate growth and job creation, fill in the output gap, and ultimately raise inflation to a mandate-consistent level.

Next, Goldman calculates how much existing monetary, and fiscal policy levers have narrowed the Taylor gap by:

The 700bp policy gap clearly overstates the extent of the policy miss because it ignores (1) the expansionary stance of fiscal policy, (2) the LSAPs that have already occurred and (3) the FOMC?s ?extended period? commitment to a low funds rate. We attempt to incorporate the implications of these for the policy gap in two steps.

First, we obtain an estimate of how much the existing unconventional Fed policies have eased financial conditions. In previous work we showed that the first round of easing pushed down short- and long-term interest rates, boosted equity prices and led to depreciation of the dollar. Although our estimates are subject to a considerable margin of error, they suggest that ?QE1? has boosted financial conditions?as measured by our GSFCI ?by around 80bp per $1 trillion (trn) of purchases. Moreover, our estimates suggest that the ?extended period? language has provided an additional 30bp boost to financial conditions. A number of studies undertaken at the Fed similarly point to sizable effects on financial conditions. A New York Fed study, for example, finds that QE1 has pushed down long-term yields by 38-82bp. A paper by the St. Louis Fed also finds a sizable boost to financial conditions more generally, including equity prices and the exchange rate.

Second, we translate this boost to financial conditions?as well as the expansionary fiscal stance?into funds rate units. To do so, we attempt to quantify the relative impact of changes in the federal funds rate, fiscal policy and the GSFCI on real GDP. As such estimates are subject to considerable uncertainty we take the average effect across a number of existing studies (see Exhibit 2). With regard to monetary policy, the studies we consider suggest that a 100bp easing in the funds rate, on  average, boosts the level of real GDP by 1.6% after two years. A fiscal expansion worth 1% of GDP, on average, raises the level of GDP by 1.1% two years later. Using existing studies to gauge the effects of an easing in our GSFCI on output is more difficult as other researchers construct their financial conditions indices in different ways. Taking the average across studies that report effects for the components of their indices?thus allowing us to re-weight the effects for our GSFCI? and our own estimate suggests that a 100bp easing in financial conditions increases the level of GDP by around 1.5% after two years.

What does this mean for the real impact on the implied fund rate from every incremental dollar of purchases?

Combining these two steps suggests that $1trn of asset purchases is equivalent to a 75bp cut in the funds rate (calculated as the effect of LSAPs on financial conditions (80bp), multiplied by the effect of financial conditions on GDP (1.5%), divided by the effect of the funds rate on GDP (1.6%)). This estimate reinforces the view that QE1 helped to substitute for conventional policy. Our estimate, however, is less optimistic than the 100-150bp range cited by New York Fed President Dudley, or the 130bp implied by Glenn Rudebusch of the San Francisco Fed.

In terms of the other policy levers, our analysis implies that the ?extended period? language is worth around 30bp cut in the funds rate and a fiscal stimulus of 1% of GDP is equivalent to around 70bp of fed funds rate easing.

So how much more work should the FOMC do? Exhibit 3 shows that consideration of policy levers other than the funds rate cuts the estimated policy gap by more than half, from 700bp to 300bp. Of this 400bp reduction, the easy stance of fiscal policy is worth 240bp; QE1 is worth 130bp; and the existing commitment language is worth another 30bp.

And the kicker, which shows just how naive we were:

We can then express the remaining policy gap in terms of the required additional LSAPs. Using our estimate that $1trn in LSAPs is worth an estimated 75bp cut in the federal funds rate and assuming that all other policy levers stay where they are at present, Fed officials would need to buy an additional $4trn to close the remaining policy gap of 300bp.

Now, for the amusing part: what does $4 trillion in purchases means for inflation. Or, a better question, when will $4 trillion be priced in...

In reality, the FOMC is unlikely to authorize additional LSAPs of as much as $4trn, unless the economy performs much worse than we are forecasting. The committee perceives LSAPs as considerably more costly than an equivalent amount of conventional monetary stimulus, and is therefore not likely to use the two interchangeably. Many Fed officials believe that there are significant ?tail risks? associated with LSAPs and the associated increase in the Fed?s aggregate balance sheet. These  risks include the possibility of substantial mark-to-market losses on the Fed?s investment, which might prove embarrassing in the Fed?s dealings with Congress and could, in theory, undermine its independence. They also include the possibility that the  associated sharp increase in the monetary base will lead households and firms to expect much higher inflation at some point in the future.

Unfortunately, it is extremely difficult to put a number on the perceived or actual cost of an extra $1trn in LSAPs in terms of these tail risks. However, we have some information on how the FOMC has behaved to date that might reveal Fed? officials? perception of these costs.

Oddly, nobody ever talks about the impact of "unconvential" printing of trillions on commodities such as oil and gold. They will soon.

Our analysis is therefore consistent with additional asset purchases of around $2trn if the FOMC?s forecasts converge to our own. It is unlikely, however, that the FOMC will announce asset purchases of this size in the very near term. Rather, our analysis suggests that the timing of the announcements should depend on whether, and how quickly, the FOMC?s forecasts converge to ours.

Hatzius pretty much says it all- suddenly the market will be "forced" to price in up to 4 times as much in additional monetary loosening from the "convention wisdom accepted" $1 trillion. We have just one thing do add. If Goldman has underestimated the impact of existing fiscal and monetary intervention, and instead of closing 4% of the Taylor gap, the actual impact has been far less negligible (and if Ferguson is right in assuming that all this excess money has in fact gone to chasing emerging market and commodity bubbles), it means that, assuming 75bps of impact per trillion, the Fed will not stop until it prints nearly ten trillion in incremental money beginning on November 3. That's almost more than M1 and M2 combined.
Is the case for $10,000 gold becoming clearer?

 link

Early winter thanks to the BP Oil Disaster and the death of the Loop Current in the Gulf of Mexico^: not me saying this it is from the site i copied it from, i believe the oil spill has added to the problem not created it!!!!

^Early Snow Falling on Vermont Mountain Tops ~ 

link 

^Early Snow at Snowshoe ~

 

~ link 

 ^Nor'easter brings rain and snow to N.E. ~ 

~ link  

^Utahns preparing for first dose of winter weather 

 ~ link 

^Early season snow out East...and maybe for us by month's end ~

^Heavy Sno Closes Swiss Mountain Passes ~ 

Heavy snow has fallen over the weekend, closing five mountain passes in Switzerland.

According to the Swiss news agency, Swissinfo.ch, early snow has fallen as low as 1200 metres in certain regions of Switzerland. The five Swiss mountain passes of Nufenen, Furka, Grimsel, Susten, and San Bernardino (all above 2000 metres) have been closed since Saturday.

Other Swiss resorts with early openings dates include Zermatt, Saas-Fee, Klosters, and Engelberg.

^At Mammonth Mountain, fall colors give way to early snow ~


^Its winter already in the Kashmir Valley ~ link ~ CHANDIGARH: The first snowflakes of the season frolicked down on several areas of Kashmir valley as well as upper reaches of Himachal as hail and thundersqualls soaked Delhi, Punjab, Haryana and western UP, brightening chances of an early winter in northern India.

A blanket of snow covered Gulmarg, Pahalgam, Kokernag, Qazigund and the Pir Panchal mountains on Friday morning, pulling down day temperatures in Srinagar and other towns from around 10 degrees Celsius to below 4 degrees Celsius.

Himachal Pradesh was also in the grip of a severe cold wave with early snow and heavy downpour in upper reaches of the state. Snow covered parts of Kullu, Kinnaur and Lahaul-Spiti as well as the Rohtang Pass. 

^Colder temperatures and more snow are predicted this winter, as southern New Jersey battles the elements ~ link ~ This calendar year has brought snowstorms and flooding and scorching heat and drought to southern New Jersey, a year of extremes, a year of Mother Nature's wrath.

And now, cold. And more snow. AccuWeather chief long-range forecaster Joe Bastardi said we should expect cold temperatures earlier than normal this year. The first chill could come Friday night, as temperatures are expected to drop into the low 30s, according to National Weather Service.

 

4.4-magnitude earthquake in Wyominglink

JACKSON, Wyo., Oct. 24 (UPI) -- A 4.4-magnitude earthquake struck 20 miles outside Jackson, Wyo., Sunday, the U.S. Geological Survey said.
The earthquake, 20 miles east-northeast of Jackson and 335 miles west-northwest of Cheyenne, hit at 11:43 a.m. at a depth of 3.1 miles, the USGS said.

 

Hurricane Richard hits Belize, power downlink

BELMOPAN, Belize, Oct. 25 (UPI) -- Hurricane Richard slammed into Belize Sunday night, cutting off all power in the country, Belizean.com reported.
Three thousand residents and tourists were holed up in shelters across the country as the Category 1 storm downed trees and power lines, destroyed houses and closed highways and roads, Belizean said, adding, "All of Belize is without power."
The eye of the storm passed through central Belize at about 10 p.m. CDT with maximum sustained winds of 90 miles per hour, the National Hurricane Center in Miami said in an advisory.
Richard was moving west-northwest at 9 mph and was forecast to reach northern Guatemala early Monday. Hurricane-force winds extended outward for 15 miles, with tropical storm-force winds extending 105 miles.
A storm surge of 3-5 feet along the Belize coast was expected to continue through Monday morning. Three to 6 inches of rain was forecast for Belize and parts of Guatemala and Mexico, with maximum storm totals approaching 10 inches. Mudslides and flash floods could accompany such totals, especially in the mountains, the center said.