International Concern Over Iceland’s Katla Volcano Erupting Soon Is Justified link

For the past few weeks, Alexa.com reports there have been constant searches in regard “increased earthquake activity,” “iceland katla,” and “yellowstone cover up.” In fact, considered as a whole, these are the top search terms that are currently driving approximately four percent ( 4% ) of our overall traffic. Based on the constant searches for these subjects it is obvious that many people, especially Europeans, are extremely interested in the status of Iceland’s Katla Volcano and are attempting to find whatever information they can in regard this extremely dangerous volcano. (I’ve noted that Britain is responsible for approximately 50% of these searches using internal site statistics.)
Unfortunately, as dangerous as this volcano is and its history of erupting within months of the Eyjafjallajökull Volcano is disturbing. I find it deplorable that the EU’s respective governments are not attempting to prepare their citizens for what I believe is an eventuality, not a probability.  Speaking in terms of probability, history would seem to indicate that the Katla Volcano could erupt relatively soon, perhaps before the end of 2010. Again, attempting to find reputable information in regard the Katla Volcano isn’t easy, however some of it is out there, and to be frank, the future in regard Katla doesn’t look promising at all…
From a political and financial standpoint, it’s understandable that Great Britain and the European Union are crossing their fingers in regard a Katla eruption rather than sounding an alarm. Their collective economies are suffering and a significant Katla eruption could upset the “recovery” and has the potential to kill tens of thousands of European citizens, most likely the elderly and those with chronic or significant health issues.
First, to help evaluate Katla’s possibility/probability/eventuality of an eruption in the near future I’d recommend taking heed of Iceland’s predictions of a destructive volcano that no one is more familiar with its behavior than the Icelandic people and their government which stated:

“Geophysicists at Iceland’s Institute of Earth Sciences say Katla would be locally and globally damaging.
Icelandic President Ólafur Grímsson has warned Governments around Europe that a significant eruption at the volcano is “coming close”. He said: “We [Iceland] have prepared … it is high time for European governments and airline authorities all over Europe and the world to start planning for the eventual Katla eruption.” MORE

Make no mistake, Icelandic government officials are closely monitoring the Katla Volcano and do expect it to erupt in the near future, as do I and most scientists that are intimately familiar with this volcano. Keep in mind that throughout history, Katla has erupted on a timetable of approximately every fifty (50) years; the last time the Katla Volcano erupted was in 1918 so another eruption is long overdue. It is also extremely important to understand that there appears to be a direct relation to Eyjafjallajokull eruptions and the subsequent eruption of the much more dangerous Katla Volcano. In May of this year the BBC published an excellent synopsis of this theory and presented facts that back-up this phenomena:

Could another Icelandic volcano erupt soon?

By Victoria Gill
Science reporter, BBC News
Katla is Eyjafjallajokull’s more active neighbour, and scientists believe that there may be a link between the two volcanoes.
This link has not been physically proven, explains Magnus Tumi Gudmundsson a geophysicist from the University of Iceland. A circumstantial, historical connection “is putting people’s eyes on Katla,” he says.
“We know of four Eyjafjallajokull eruptions in the past [dating back to AD 500] and in three out of these four cases, there has been a Katla eruption either at the same time or shortly after.
“By shortly, I mean timescales of months to a year. (Emphasis added.)

“We consider that the probability of Katla erupting in the near future has increased since Eyjafjallajokull went.”
Kathryn Goodenough from the British Geological Survey points out that, as yet, there is no physical explanation for this apparent link.
“Scientists don’t yet know what the connection is,” she says.
“But we know there are fissures running between the two volcanoes. And they’re quite close to each other.
“They’re also being subjected to the same tectonic forces. So the chances are that if magma can find a pathway to rise beneath one of them, it can find its way to rise beneath the other.”
Researchers do know that the two volcanoes have separate magma chambers, but many suspect that these chambers are physically linked in some way, deep beneath the surface of the Earth.
Overdue eruption
Katla’s last eruption was in 1918. It lasted for three weeks and up to a cubic kilometre of material exploded through its vent.
“It’s a much more active volcano than Eyjafjallajokull – it has had about 20 eruptions in the last 1,000 years, so it erupts about once every 50 years on average,” says Professor Gudmundsson.
“At first glance people would say it’s now long overdue. But the larger the eruption, the longer the pause (in) time that follows it, and that 1918 eruption was large.”
At the moment, there is no seismic activity detectable underneath Katla that would indicate that magma is moving upward underneath it.
Scientists from the Icelandic Meteorological Office are looking at such signals and updating their website regularly with the seismic data that is being produced.
But Dr Goodenough points out that, with Eyjafjallajokull “we only had a few hours warning”.

“Seismic monitoring does not necessarily give you advance notice of an eruption.” LINK

Editor’s Note:  Please be advised that the above are excerpts from what I consider to be an excellent article and contains the learned opinions of many of our best scientists. It is well worth the time to follow the link and read the entire article.  Also, I placed the emphasis on the statement that made it clear that “seismic monitoring does not necessarily give you advance notice of an eruption.” As I have pointed out in past articles on earthquakes and volcanoes, most of the time volcanoes do experience seismic activity before an eruption, but not always! My research has demonstrated that approximately ten to fifteen percent of the time volcanoes can erupt with absolutely no warning whatsoever. Please do not be lulled into complacency because there doesn’t appear to be any major seismic activity at Katla.

There is not a lot of continuity in the various articles that describe the Katla Volcano except to describe it as enormously dangerous.  The BrisbaneTimes.com.au has stated that Katla erupts on a schedule of roughly eighty (80) years; using their figures, Katla is still overdue for an eruption:

Katla, the ‘witch’ volcano, looms over Iceland

The frightening reputation of Katla is mirrored in a savage landscape of black volcanic ridges, blue ice, and snow swept and hardened by powerful winds.
The worry for Icelanders is that each time Eyjafjoell has erupted over the last millennium, Katla, named after an Icelandic witch, quickly followed.
“There have been three Eyjafjoell eruptions and Katla has followed each time,” said geophysicist Sigrun Hreinsdottir, at the Earth Sciences Institute. “They are very close.”

Some believe the volcanoes are directly linked underground so that magma from one can flow into the other. Hreinsdottir said that what happens inside volcanoes is largely a mystery.
What’s known is that Katla has erupted approximately every 80 years since Vikings first settled this island nestled under the Arctic Circle more than a thousand years ago.
The last eruption was in 1918 and “it’s the longest pause of Katla on record, which is why we are monitoring it very carefully,” Hreinsdottir said.
An eruption from Katla might not necessarily be dangerous. But it has the potential every time to repeat the 1918 scene when a wall of melted glacier water swept down, bearing ice chunks the size of houses, and blanketing southern Iceland in thick ash.
What effect a monster eruption would have on a Europe crippled by the much milder Eyjafjoell can only be imagined. Much would depend on wind direction, the type of ash and height of the ash plume. MUCH MORE

Even though I understand some of the news media’s reluctance to report on any activity at the Katla Volcano, there are people, ThePoliticalBandit included, outside of the Mainstream News Media that have been actively tracking Katla, Hekla, and other dangerous volcanoes in Iceland, and yes, there has been some seismic activity. I prefer to use MSM news sources as they tend to galvanize the public into action, but in regard the Icelandic Volcanoes it appears that our news media in Europe and the United States have adopted the attitude that if they don’t report upon what I believe is an active threat the public will simply forget about it; failing to talk about this threat is also not good for business and the EU Recovery.
Based on my reluctance to use sources other than the MSM, I’d be irresponsible if I didn’t publish an excellent piece that comes from the ModernSurvivalBlog.com that visually demonstrates seismic activity that is originating from Katla’s Caldera:

Katla Volcano Caldera Earthquakes 2010-September

The Katla volcano located in Iceland, lies beneath the Myrdalsjokull glacier and is located next to its little sister volcano, Eyjafjallajokull, which erupted earlier this year on 14-Apr-2010.
Historically, Katla has always erupted not long after Eyjafjallajokull, the longest span being 1.5 years and the shortest time span being approximately 6 months. As of this post, 5 months have gone by since the clock started ticking so lets have a look at what has happened at Katla during that time.
The image above just shows earthquakes that have occurred at or within the caldera itself. I have been casually tracking the Katla volcano since 17-May of this year, so this data tracks the 4 month period since then. During that time I have identified 58 earthquakes at the caldera. Also during that time I have identified 307 earthquakes at Katla including the region outside of the caldera, but still on the Katla volcano itself.
The following image “should” be an up to date current view of the caldera earthquakes:

I am focusing on the caldera because apparently many of the other earthquakes, particularly those just outside the western rim of the caldera, are being caused by seasonal glacial water runoff stresses and are not themselves indicators of potential magma movement. There are a few technical papers written on that subject, and the explanation made sense having read them.
The caldera has an area of about 42 square miles (108 square kilometers) and is about 6 x 9 miles across (10 x 15 km).

I am attributing the earthquakes that are shown here on the west caldera rim as being associated with the seasonal glacial water stress factors, because when looking at the larger map, you can see that the earthquakes continue on to the west as described in the technical papers.
That leaves three areas of interest: the northeast rim, the southeast region, and central-northeast region. The location of the 1918 eruption is in the southeast region while the location of the 1715 eruption is in the central-northeast region. I don’t have the data or the tools to show depth and 3-dimensional renderings of the earthquakes (I am not a vulcanologist, but an interested observer of geophysical events), but I’m sure that would be telling in some way.
The conclusion is that Katla has not yet concluded this portion of its history. The frequency of earthquake occurrence has been fairly constant with a few fits of exciting higher amounts once in  a while. One of the real clues will be when the number of earthquakes begin to rise significantly, as what typically happens prior to any eruption. LINK
Editor’s Note:The information and data contained in the above post by The Modern Survival Blog is excellent and correlates well with our own research. They are much more visual in their presentations, a talent I have yet to master – so Kudos to Lauren & Ken who are middle aged hard working Americans. This Blog contains excellent information on Icelandic Volcanoes and is worth visiting.

Yes, there has been activity at the Katla Volcano, however, based on what we know about volcanoes in general, the aforementioned seismic activity may or may not indicate that Katla is readying itself for an eruption. To us, the stronger indication that Katla will soon erupt is based on historic data and documented past eruptions that always seem to closely follow an Eyjafjallajokull eruption, usually within a few months but seldom longer than a year. There is one documented eruption of Katla that occurred 1 1/2 years after an Eyjafjallajokull eruption, but that was the exception, not the “rule” or data set that we have been analyzing. If anything, increased seismic activity at Katla only adds further evidence that the Katla Volcano is extremely likely to erupt in the near future – and to survive a major eruption of Katla, or even the Hekla Volcano, disaster preparation is the key, and if your country is not reacting to the lessons of history and are ignoring the Katla danger, said preparations will have to be the responsibility of those who believe history rather than politicians. If you wish to keep an eye on seismic activity at the Eyjafjallajokull, Katla, and Hekla volcanoes I am posting a visual link to real-time quake activity in the specific area where these volcanoes are located. Please keep in mind that this link only holds 48 hours of data, so at times it may appear OK and at other times will show several quakes:

Mýrdalsjökull – earthquakes during the last 48 hours

Please note that the above information is provided by the Icelandic Meteorological Office, a source that I believe is beyond reproach.

So, what do you do if Katla or Hekla erupts and it occurs with little or no warning?
First and foremost, today or tomorrow at the latest, go out and purchase surgical masks that will help to stop volcanic ash from entering your lungs. These masks can be considered to be dual-purpose; if they aren’t needed for volcanic ash, if and when we are presented with a long-overdue pandemic you will already have some protection for another up and coming disaster scenario.
If you home has a slanted roof, make sure that you have easy access to said roof and you own snow shovels to get that ash off of your roof as quickly as possible. (Volcanic ash is extremely heavy and build-ups on your roof can and will cause it to collapse.) The Katla and Hekla Volcanoes are extremely dangerous and do have the potential to spread ash over Great Britain and possibly some areas of Europe, and in much higher concentrations than the Eyjafjallajokull Volcano did which primarily disrupted air travel. There is no modern data that indicates what the health issues that a major eruption of Katla could have upon the European community; keeping in mind that Katla is at least ten (10) times more dangerous than Eyjafjallajokull, if not more, preparing for such a disaster is inexpensive and could help to save the lives of those with chronic health problems, the elderly, and those who have to venture outdoors during periods of heavy ash fall without breathing in dangerous volcanic ash.
One more issue needs to be considered. None of us are aware of how “major” an eruption or how long such an eruption of the Katla Volcano will last. If it is a long-term eruption and there is significant ash fall in Britain and other areas, it will very likely compromise local water supplies. Add to your list fresh drinking water stored in plastic containers with a small amount of bleach added to ensure that it will remain safe to drink. As long as you’re storing the essentials make sure that you have enough food to last at least a month. With air travel likely being shut-down and the possible contamination of local crops, storing an adequate emergency food supply is simply insurance that in the event of most disasters/emergencies, your family has a better chance of survival than those who didn’t bother to prepare for what seems to be an inevitable event.
Other Relevant Articles:
Increase Of Earthquakes And Volcanic Activity Are Caused By Climate Change
Locals Believe Iceland’s Katla Volcano Will Erupt In Five Days, And They Could Be Correct – Updated
Fact Check And Dangers Of Iceland’s Volcano Eyjafjallajokull And Possibility Of Katla Eruption, Updated
Japan’s 7.0 And Chile’s 8.8 Earthquakes – Are They Related? Can we expect more?
CNN Oversimplifies The Danger of Yellowstone National Park