Mega storm in the midwest
Of course, it will only be a matter of time before some pundit blames this storm on “global warming”. Readers feel free to post links to such stories in the comments.
click images to enlarge. Loop the radar image here
The record nature of this storm is the low barometric pressure (< 960 mb), on par with a major hurricane (if this storm were centered in the tropics and not in Minnesota). However, this system is not typical Arctic blizzard, but a more subtropical/tropically oriented monster. Nevertheless, Southern Canada will be covered in snow.
RUC Analyzed Sea-Level Pressure and WRF Simulated Radar Reflectivity Forecast
AccuWeather News Forecast FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Violent Storms Spawning Tornadoes Across Midwest
State College, PA — October 26, 2010 — AccuWeather.com reports a rip-roaring squall line (or line of severe thunderstorms) got under way in the heart of the Midwest Monday night and has already spawned tornadoes and caused widespread damage from Missouri and Kentucky to Illinois and Wisconsin.
Indianapolis is getting hit by these thunderstorms right now.
This dangerous line of thunderstorms will continue racing eastward across the Midwest today, expanding the damage swath all the way through Ohio. Destructive winds and tornadoes will remain the primary threats.
Several tornadoes have already been sighted in northeastern Illinois, southeastern Wisconsin and southwestern Kentucky. Damage to homes has been reported with one of the twisters near Peotone, Ill. Another reportedly uprooted and downed trees onto homes near Racine, Wis.
Before sunrise Tuesday, the thunderstorms were lined up from Paducah, Ky., to just west of Chicago, Ill. The main line blasted through Chicago between 7 and 8 a.m. CDT.
The line will continue roaring eastward at about 60 mph throughout the day. If you are able to safely take photos or video of the damage from these thunderstorms, be sure to post them on our AccuWeather.com Facebook page.
Other cities in the path of these vicious thunderstorms include Louisville, Ky., Toledo, Columbus, Cleveland and Cincinnati, Ohio as well as Detroit. It’s in this general area where the worst of the severe weather can be expected.
Severe thunderstorms will also affect areas farther south through Tennessee and northern parts of Mississippi and Alabama, including Nashville. However, damage is not expected to be quite as widespread as in areas farther north across the Lower Midwest.
People in the path of these thunderstorms need to stay alert to their local weather conditions and head to the lowest level of a sturdy building immediately if a severe thunderstorm or tornado warning is issued.
These thunderstorms will be knocking trees and power lines down, potentially onto roadways, buildings and vehicles. Often times when this happens, lives are tragically lost.
Again, some of the thunderstorms could also spawn more tornadoes. Any tornado that touches down in a populated area today could be devastating.
Even though the nasty thunderstorms will exit the Midwest tonight, howling winds will pick up behind them through Wednesday with gusts up to 70 mph threatening to cause more wind damage.
The two articles that i have found down below are interesting, but what you have to remember is that, as powerful as our technology is, we are still learning how the weather works, and all we have are old records to try and match to the current data, maybe in 100 years the predictions will be perfect, who knows!!!!
Link Between Solar Activity and the UK's Cold Winterslink
scienceDaily — A link between low solar activity and jet streams over the Atlantic could explain why, despite global warming trends, people in regions North East of the Atlantic Ocean might need to brace themselves for more frequent cold winters in years to come.See Also:
Lead author Mike Lockwood of the University of Reading said: "This year's winter in the UK has been the 14th coldest in the last 160 years and yet the global average temperature for the same period has been the 5th highest. We have discovered that this kind of anomaly is significantly more common when solar activity is low."
The new paper, 'Are cold winters in Europe associated with low solar activity?', differs from previous efforts to explain the UK's recent cold winters by comparing the most comprehensive, but regionally specific, temperature dataset available (the Central England Temperature dataset) to the long-term behaviour of the Sun's magnetic field, and to trends across the entire Northern Hemisphere.
The paper is being published now as the researchers have just had the opportunity to put this year's data to the test and found that this year's results fit well with the trends they have discovered.
The researchers suggest that the anomaly in Northern Europe's winter temperatures could be to do with a phenomenon called 'blocking'.
'Blocking' is related to the jet stream which brings winds from the west, over the Atlantic, and into Northern Europe but, over the past couple of winters, could have lost its way, for weeks at a time, in an 'anticyclone' before it reaches Europe.
The researchers have found strong correlations between weak solar activity and the occurrences of 'blocking'. As the temperature is affected by a weak Sun so the wind's patterns also change and, as the warmer westerly winds fail to arrive, the UK is hit by north-easterlies from the Arctic.
The researchers, from the Department of Meteorology at the University of Reading, the Science and Technology Facilities Council Space Science and Technology Department, and the Max-Planck Institute for Solar System Research in Katlenburg-Lindau, Germany, are keen to stress the regional and seasonal (European and winter) nature of their research.
Professor Mike Lockwood has explained that the trends do not guarantee colder winters but they do suggest that colder winters will become more frequent. He said: "If we look at the last period of very low solar activity at the end of the seventeenth century, we find the coldest winter on record in 1684 but, for example, the very next year, when solar activity was still low, saw the third warmest winter in the entire 350-year record.
"The results do show however that there are a greater number of cold UK winters when solar activity is low."
UK May Experience More Cold Winterslink
ScienceDaily New research from the University of Reading suggests the UK may experience more cold winters in future when the Sun is at a lower level of activity.
The amount of radiation emitted by the Sun varies naturally over time and over centuries. The scientists measured the magnetic field emanating from the Sun into space to quantify solar activity.Using records of temperatures dating back to 1659, the study established a connection between lower solar activity and severe winters.
Between 1650 and 1700 there was a prolonged episode of low solar activity which coincided with more severe winters in the UK and continental Europe.
Mike Lockwood, Professor of Space Environment Physics in the Department of Metererology at the University, said: "The UK has experienced relatively mild winters in recent decades, but not this year. Also this year, the Sun fell to an activity level not seen for a century.
"The results relate to a seasonal (winter) and regional (Central England) temperature change and not a global effect. However the work does show how regional or local measurements can show a solar effect and highlights how important it is to avoid trying to make deductions about the global climate from what is seen in just one part of the world."
The paper published in IOP Publishing's Environmental Research Letters, says the cold weather trends during lower solar activity are consistent with solar influence on blocking events in the Eastern Atlantic. Blocking occurs when the warm jet stream from the west on its way to Northern Europe is blocked allowing north-easterly winds to arrive from the Arctic. Blocking episodes can persist for several weeks, leading to extended cold periods in winter.
Professor Lockwood says the trends do not guarantee colder winters but they do suggest that colder winters will become more frequent. He said: "If we look at the last period of very low solar activity at the end of the 17th Century, we find the coldest winter on record in1684 but, for example, the very next year, when solar activity was still low, saw the third warmest winter in the entire 350-year record. The results do show however that there are a greater number of cold UK winters when solar activity is low."
The University of Reading worked in partnership with the Science and Technology Facilities Council Space Science and Technology Department at the Rutherford Appleton Laboratory in Oxfordshire, and the Max-Planck Institute for Solar System Research in Katlenburg-Lindau, Germany.
Iran loads fuel into 1st nuclear plant the date 1/11/2010 to 15/11/10 seems to have been predicted by many different sources could this be the precursor to ww3?? link
Indonesia warns pressure building in volcanolink
Mount Merapi spews volcanic smoke in Yogyakarta, central Java, Indonesia on Monday. (Slamet Riyadi/Associated Press)
Villagers walk to their fields against a backdrop of Mount Merapi in Yogyakarta, Indonesia, on Monday. (Slamet Riyadi/Associated Press)BIG SUNSPOT: Sunspot group 1117 continues to grow, more than doubling in area during the past 48 hours: movie. Each of the primary dark cores in this Oct. 26th snapshot from the Solar Dynamics Observatory is fully as wide as Earth:
Solar Shield--Protecting the North American Power Grid is this the reason for all the chem trails????link
Oct. 26, 2010: Every hundred years or so, a solar storm comes along so potent it fills the skies of Earth with blood-red auroras, makes compass needles point in the wrong direction, and sends electric currents coursing through the planet's topsoil. The most famous such storm, the Carrington Event of 1859, actually shocked telegraph operators and set some of their offices on fire. A 2008 report by the National Academy of Sciences warns that if such a storm occurred today, we could experience widespread power blackouts with permanent damage to many key transformers. What's a utility operator to do?
The sun rises behind high-voltage power lines in North America.
"Solar Shield is a new and experimental forecasting system for the North American power grid," explains project leader Antti Pulkkinen, a Catholic University of America research associate working at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center. "We believe we can zero in on specific transformers and predict which of them are going to be hit hardest by a space weather event."
The troublemaker for power grids is the "GIC" – short for geomagnetically induced current. When a coronal mass ejection (a billion-ton solar storm cloud) hits Earth's magnetic field, the impact causes the field to shake and quiver. These magnetic vibrations induce currents almost everywhere, from Earth's upper atmosphere to the ground beneath our feet. Powerful GICs can overload circuits, trip breakers, and in extreme cases melt the windings of heavy-duty transformers.
This actually happened in Quebec on March 13, 1989, when a geomagnetic storm much less severe than the Carrington Event knocked out power across the entire province for more than nine hours. The storm damaged transformers in Quebec, New Jersey, and Great Britain, and caused more than 200 power anomalies across the USA from the eastern seaboard to the Pacific Northwest. A similar series of "Halloween storms" in October 2003 triggered a regional blackout in southern Sweden and may have damaged transformers in South Africa.
While many utilities have taken steps to fortify their grids, the overall situation has only gotten worse. A 2009 report by the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) and the US Department of Energy concluded that modern power systems have a "significantly enhance[d] vulnerability and exposure to effects of a severe geomagnetic storm." The underlying reason may be seen at a glance in this plot:
Growth of the High Voltage Transmission Network and annual electric energy usage in the United States over the past 50 years. Credit: North American Electric Reliability Corporation and the US Dept. of Energy.
A large-scale blackout could last a long time, mainly due to transformer damage. As the National Academy report notes, "these multi-ton apparatus cannot be repaired in the field, and if damaged in this manner they need to be replaced with new units which have lead times of 12 months or more."
Permanent damage to the Salem New Jersey Nuclear Plant GSU Transformer caused by the March 13, 1989 geomagnetic storm. Photos courtesy of PSE&G. [larger image]
The innovation of Solar Shield is its ability to deliver transformer-level predictions. Pulkkinen explains how it works:
"Solar Shield springs into action when we see a coronal mass ejection (CME) billowing away from the sun. Images from SOHO and NASA's twin STEREO spacecraft show us the cloud from as many as three points of view, allowing us to make a 3D model of the CME, and predict when it will arrive."
While the CME is crossing the sun-Earth divide, a trip that typically takes 24 to 48 hours, the Solar Shield team prepares to calculate ground currents. "We work at Goddard's Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC)," says Pulkkinen. The CCMC is a place where leading researchers from around the world have gathered their best physics-based computer programs for modeling space weather events. The crucial moment comes about 30 minutes before impact when the cloud sweeps past ACE, a spacecraft stationed 1.5 million km upstream from Earth. Sensors onboard ACE make in situ measurements of the CME's speed, density, and magnetic field. These data are transmitted to Earth and the waiting Solar Shield team.
"We quickly feed the data into CCMC computers," says Pulkkinen. "Our models predict fields and currents in Earth's upper atmosphere and propagate these currents down to the ground." With less than 30 minutes to go, Solar Shield can issue an alert to utilities with detailed information about GICs.
Pulkkinen stresses that Solar Shield is experimental and has never been field-tested during a severe geomagnetic storm. A small number of utility companies have installed current monitors at key locations in the power grid to help the team check their predictions. So far, though, the sun has been mostly quiet with only a few relatively mild storms during the past year. The team needs more data.
"We'd like more power companies to join our research effort," he adds. "The more data we can collect from the field, the faster we can test and improve Solar Shield." Power companies work with the team through EPRI, the Electric Power Research Institute. Of course a few good storms would help test the system, too. They're coming. The next solar maximum is expected around 2013, so it's only a matter of time.
Two dead, 160 missing after Indonesia tsunamilink
Many residents in Padang, West Sumatra, fled to higher ground after the earthquake Reports from Indonesia say two people have been killed and 160 people are missing after a localised tsunami triggered by Monday's powerful earthquake off the coast of Sumatra.
Dozens of houses were destroyed by waves after the 7.5 magnitude quake, which struck near the Mentawai islands. A local police officer told the BBC that bad weather had delayed a search and rescue operation.
Australian officials are trying to contact a group of missing surfers.
The group of between eight and 10 missing Australians was on a surfing charter boat in the area.
Poor telephone coverage was hampering efforts to contact them, Australia's Department of Foreign Affairs said.
Search under way
There were conflicting reports on whether Monday's quake had generated a tsunami.
Within the first few minutes of the earthquake Indonesian authorities issued a tsunami alert, but later gave the all clear.Meanwhile the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center said in its statement late on Monday that a significant tsunami was generated but had now been cancelled.
"Two dead bodies have been found in Sipora island. Several people are still missing in Bosua village and we are searching for them," the official - who goes by one name - said.
He said 80% of the buildings in one village had been destroyed.
Meanwhile, another group of Australians said their boat was destroyed by a wall of water.
Captain Rick Hallet told Australian media that his boat was anchored off Pagai Island in the Menatawis when the waves came.
"We felt a bit of a shake underneath the boat... then within several minutes we heard an almighty roar," he said.
"I immediately thought of a tsunami and looked out to sea and that's when we saw the wall of white water coming at us," he said.
The wave brought another boat crashing into them and sparked a fire, forcing them to jump into the sea.
Some of those on board were swept up to 200m inland by the wave, he said.
Yet little by little – a wingless beetle here, a tuft of grass there, Kasatochi, an island in the Alaska Maritime National Wildlife Refuge rarely studied by scientists before its Aug. 7, 2008, volcanic eruption, is showing signs of recovery.
In the summer of 2009, scientists with the U.S. Geological Survey, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and the University of Alaska Museum of the North returned to the island to begin long-term studies to better understand the effects of the eruption and how quickly the island’s ecosystems recover.
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| Kasatochi volcano, Alaska, after its eruption on Aug. 7, 2008. Picture taken at 17,000 feet above seal level. Picture courtesy of Jerry Morris. |
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| Summit crater and crater lake of Kasatochi volcano, August 6, 2008, the day before the eruption. The crater shown here is about 4,000 feet in diameter. Photo by Chris Ford, USFWS. |
Prior to the eruption, Kasatochi was one of the most picturesque of the Aleutian Islands. Its steep slopes were covered with low-growing grasses and wildflowers, and in the center of the island there was a steep-walled crater filled at the bottom with a small turquoise lake.
Kasatochi Island hosted a colony of about 250,000 least and crested auklets, making it one of the major seabird breeding colonies in the Aleutian Islands. In turn, the numerous seabirds attracted avian predators such as bald eagles, peregrine falcons and ravens. Kasatochi Island was also home to a rookery of endangered Steller sea lions.
But after the eruption, other than sea lions loafing on a newly formed beach, the island appeared to be completely devoid of life. The entire island and neighboring seafloor were covered with thick layers of volcanic ash and deposits from the eruption.
That first summer after the eruption, teams of geologists, botanists, entomologists, ornithologists and marine ecologists visited Kasatochi and nearby islands four times to document the effects of the eruption and establish a baseline with which long-term observations will be compared. The team also set up sampling plots and equipment such as seismometers, time-lapse cameras and bird song recorders.
“When we first landed on the island, we were unsure of what we would find,” said project manager Tony DeGange of the USGS. “The formerly lush, green island was uniformly gray and in the 10 months since the eruption, considerable erosion of volcanic ash had occurred.”
By late summer, the team found several kinds of green plants scattered around the island.
“Even more exciting was the discovery of one small remnant plant community,” said USGS research geneticist Sandra Talbot. “Most of the plants likely originated from underground root systems, rhizomes or seed banks that survived the eruption, particularly in areas that were protected from the hot volcanic flows and where the ash eroded off quickly to expose the pre-eruption soils.”
Entomologist Derek Sikes from the University of Alaska Museum of the North also discovered that terrestrial arthropods had survived the eruption. He found wingless carrion beetles, a centipede and a spider, as well as kelp flies and a blowfly that were eating bird carcasses and kelp that had washed up on the island.
Thousands of seabirds returned to the island that first summer, although none nested successfully, according to Jeff Williams of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s Alaska Maritime National Wildlife Refuge.
“The auklet colony was buried under volcanic debris and ash,” Williams said. “They were unable to locate suitable nesting crevices and laid eggs on the ground or in the water instead. It will be interesting to see if erosion eventually exposes the rock crevices that these birds need for nesting or if they eventually abandon the island. Steller sea lions,” he added, “were the only wildlife species to breed successfully.”
Similar to what the research team found onshore, nearshore habitats were blanketed with sediments and were largely devoid of life. Most of the kelp forests in the ocean around the island had been covered with volcanic debris.
“We are now in the midst of our second year of research at Kasatochi Island, and our intent is to continue this work for many years,” said DeGange. “The Aleutian Islands are a part of the Pacific ring of fire, and destructive volcanic eruptions are a primary form of ecosystem disturbance in these earthquake- and volcano-prone zones that reach from Chile up to Alaska and down through the South Pacific. Kasatochi Island is a natural laboratory that will help us understand how volcanic eruptions shape Aleutian Island ecosystems.”
21 Volcanoes Across Country Ready to Eruptlink
In this file photo, Mount Sinabung, one of the 21 volcanoes being monitored for signs of danger. (JG Photo) Bandung. Twenty-one volcanoes across Indonesia could erupt at any time, leading to natural disasters, officials have warned.
An official from the Volcanology and Geological Disaster Mitigation Agency (PVMBG) told the Jakarta Globe on Friday that the alert for 18 volcanoes had been raised from Level 1, or “normal,” to Level 2, or “beware.”
Hendrasto, the head of the PVMBG’s Volcano Observation Unit, said that three other volcanoes were on Level 3, or “standby,” just one step below full alert, or Level 4.
One of those three is Mount Sinabung in Karo district, North Sumatra, which began erupting on Aug. 29 after lying dormant for 400 years. Its last major eruption, on Sept. 7, spewed volcanic ash more than 5,000 meters into the atmosphere.
“We downgraded Sinabung from Level 4 to Level 3 on September 23,” Hendrasto said. “However, we still urge the public to remain alert for any danger.”
Most of the villagers who were evacuated after the initial eruption have since been allowed to return to their homes.
The two other volcanoes on Level 3 alert are Mount Karangetang on Siau Island in North Sulawesi and Mount Ibu on Halmahera Island in North Maluku. Karangetang is considered the most active volcano in the archipelago, with 41 major eruptions since 1675. Its last eruption, on Aug. 6, is believed to have killed four people.
Ibu, meanwhile, has experienced ongoing eruptions since April 5, 2008, feeding a lava flow down one side of the mountain.
The 18 volcanoes on Level 2 alert include Papandayan in West Java, Slamet in Yogyakarta, Merapi in Central Java and Semeru and Bromo in East Java.
“Semeru and Slamet are the highest peaks in their provinces, while Bromo is a popular tourist destination,” Hendrasto said. “Because of their popularity, we are urging the regional administrations to issue a warning advising the public of the raised alert status.”
Other volcanoes on Level 2 alert include Talang in West Sumatra, Kaba in Bengkulu, Kerinci in Jambi and Anak Krakatau in the Sunda Strait, between Sumatra and Java.
Anak Krakatau is the remnant of Krakatau, whose violent eruption in August 1883 killed an estimated 40,000 people and was heard up to 5,000 kilometers away.
The eruption caused tsunamis as far away as South Africa, and resulted in global temperatures dropping by more than 1 degree Celsius.
Kerinci, at 3,800 meters, is the highest peak in Sumatra and the highest volcano in the country. It is a popular destination with hikers and wildlife enthusiasts because it lies inside the Bukit Barisan National Park.
In the east of the country, the Level 2 volcanoes are Batur in Bali, Sangeang Api and Rinjani in West Nusa Tenggara, Egon and Rokatenda in East Nusa Tenggara, Soputan and Lokon in North Sulawesi, and Dukono and Gamalama in North Maluku.
“Our officials will keep monitoring these volcanoes around the clock and provide real-time updates,” Hendrasto said.
All 21 volcanoes highlighted have erupted sometime this year, and are among 59 active volcanoes across the country.
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