Tuesday 2 November 2010




Glacier melting suggests Iceland volcano may be about to eruptlink

Meltwater flooding from the Grimsvotn glacial lake in Iceland could signal the volcano underneath is about to erupt, the Icelandic Civil Protection Department said.

Meltwater flooding from the Grimsvotn glacial lake in Iceland could signal the volcano underneath is about to erupt, the Icelandic Civil Protection Department said.
Scientists detected volcanic activity in the southern part of the Vatnajokull glacier, Grimsvotn Photo: AP
In April, clouds of ash from an eruption under the Eyjafjallajokull glacier grounded flights across Europe for a week, causing billions of dollars in losses for airlines and other industries.
Water now pouring from Iceland's biggest glacier, Vatnajokull, which sits on top of a number of volcanic hot spots, could be a sign of fresh geological activity, said Gudrun Johannesdottir.
Eyjafjallajokull is about 60 miles southeast of Vatnajokull.
"We have to check if there will be an eruption," Ms Johannesdottir said.
"Sometimes it initiates an eruption when a glacial outburst flood starts, but not every the time. So we are monitoring the situation closely."
The latest eruption at Grimsvotn, in 2004, caused short-term disruptions to airline traffic into Iceland.

 

UAH global temperature, down about 0.2°C in October

As pointed out last week, Sea Surface Temperatures and the daily lower troposphere temperatures continue to fall as La NiƱa looms large in the Pacific. We may find that the continued drop prevents 2010 from being the “hottest year ever” that many alarmists are hoping will to put some life back in the climate change meme.
Dr. Roy Spencer reports:
UAH_LT_1979_thru_Oct_10


As the tropical tropospheric temperatures continue to cool, the global average is finally beginning to follow suit:+0.42 deg. C for October, 2010. This is the lowest monthly temperature anomaly we’ve seen in what has been a very warm year.

YR MON GLOBE NH SH TROPICS
2009 1 0.251 0.472 0.030 -0.068
2009 2 0.247 0.565 -0.071 -0.045
2009 3 0.191 0.324 0.058 -0.159
2009 4 0.162 0.315 0.008 0.012
2009 5 0.139 0.161 0.118 -0.059
2009 6 0.041 -0.021 0.103 0.105
2009 7 0.429 0.190 0.668 0.506
2009 8 0.242 0.236 0.248 0.406
2009 9 0.505 0.597 0.413 0.594
2009 10 0.362 0.332 0.393 0.383
2009 11 0.498 0.453 0.543 0.479
2009 12 0.284 0.358 0.211 0.506
2010 1 0.648 0.860 0.436 0.681
2010 2 0.603 0.720 0.486 0.791
2010 3 0.653 0.850 0.455 0.726
2010 4 0.501 0.799 0.203 0.633
2010 5 0.534 0.775 0.292 0.708
2010 6 0.436 0.550 0.323 0.476
2010 7 0.489 0.635 0.342 0.420
2010 8 0.511 0.674 0.347 0.364
2010 9 0.603 0.555 0.650 0.285
2010 10 0.419 0.365 0.473 0.152
For those following the race for warmest year in the satellite tropospheric temperature record (which began in 1979), 2010 is still within striking distance of the record warm year of 1998. Here are the 1998 and 2010 averages for January 1st through October 31:
1998 +0.57
2010 +0.54
Note that the difference between the two is not statistically significant…just symbolically.
[NOTE: These satellite measurements are not calibrated to surface thermometer data in any way, but instead use on-board redundant precision platinum resistance thermometers (PRTs) carried on the satellite radiometers. The PRT's are individually calibrated in a laboratory before being installed in the instruments.]
Two Russian volcanoes erupting at the same time

 Shiveluch and Kluchevskayalink
 
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28 Oct 10 - Two volcanoes on Russia's far-eastern Kamchatka Peninsula - Shiveluch and Kluchevskaya - are now spewing massive ash clouds up to 33,000 feet (10 km)  into the air, disrupting flights and blanketing a nearby town with a thick layer of ash.
(
33,000 feet high is just shy of the stratosphere.)
According to the Russian Emergency Situations Ministry's branch in Kamchatka, the ash has reduced visibility in the Russian town of Ust-Kamchatsk to a few feet.
Why do I keep mentioning volcanoes?
Because ice ages correlate with huge increases in volcanic activity.

Here's a quote from Not by Fire but by Ice:
"Polarity reversals, equinoctial precession, and ice ages, all march to the same drummer. As do extinctions, new species appearance, volcanism, and rising land. Toss in the specter of massive floods, 30-story tsunami (tsunami is both singular and plural), and radioactivity falling on your head, and you've got the picture."
Just look at the last three magnetic reversals (kya stands for thousands of years ago):
34 kya - Lake Mungo magnetic reversal. Intensive volcanism. 
23 kya - Mono Lake magnetic reversal. Major volcanism. The Mono Lake event actually straddles a layer of ash (Liddicoat).
11.5 kya - Gothenburg magnetic reversal. Worldwide volcanism (Lamb). Mexican volcanism Afirmly@ dated at 11,580 " 70 years (Street-Perrott). Germany=s West Eiffel fields erupt (Lamb). Mount St. Helens ash interlayered with Lake Missoula flood deposits, indicating simultaneous events (Chernicoff). Glacier Peak, Washing­ton, erupts (Dawson). Alaskan volcanism of tremendous proportions. In Alaska and Siberia, ash lies interspersed through the piles of mammoth bones them­selves. (Hibben). Mt. Katla, Iceland, erupts (Dawson).
I fear that we are seeing a similar increase in volcanic activity right now.

Global food crisis forecast

 Prices reach record highslink
 
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Robert, It's getting uglier. World wheat and maize prices have risen 57%, rice 45% and sugar 55% over the last six months, soybeans are at their highest price for 16 months and meat prices are at 20-year highs. - Peter Pesola
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26 Oct 10 - "The governments of Kenya, Uganda, Nigeria, Indonesia, Brazil and the Philippines have all warned of possible food shortages next year," says this article in The Guardian.
"Last week, the US predicted that global wheat harvests would be 30m tonnes lower than last year, a 5.5% fall. Meanwhile, the price of tomatoes in Egypt, garlic in China and bread in Pakistan are at near-record levels."
Food price inflation of 21% in Egypt in the last year, 22% in the UK in three years, 17% in India and similar amounts in many other countries.
"The situation has deteriorated since September," said Abdolreza Abbassian of the UN food and agriculture organisation.  
"US government reports of much cooler-than-normal water temperatures in the Pacific, which traditionally lead to extreme weather around the world, last week added to food price uncertainties."
 
Did you catch that? "Much cooler-than-normal water temperatures in the Pacific ...traditionally lead to extreme weather around the world."
Why can't they just call it global cooling?"
See also:
Cotton Climbs to 140-Year High
25 Oct 10 - It's not just food shortages that we're facing.
Cotton prices touched their highest level since Reconstruction
on Friday, as a string of bad harvests and demand from China
spark worries of a global shortfall.
See Cotton Climbs to 140-Year High

 

U.S., Europe ink nuke security pactlink

VIENNA, Nov. 2 (UPI) -- U.S. nuclear officials said Tuesday they signed a nuclear security agreement with the European Atomic Energy Community in Vienna.
A statement released by the National Nuclear Security Administration, part of the U.S. Energy Department, said the agreement is designed to promote greater cooperation in nuclear security and non-proliferation. The signing was part of a nuclear safeguards symposium at the International Atomic Energy Agency, the U.N. nuclear watchdog, in Vienna.
The statement said the agreement provides a framework for greater technical cooperation between the United States and Europe for nuclear safeguards, border monitoring, nuclear forensics, export controls and physical protection of nuclear materials facilities. The pact also calls for closer collaboration on research and development of nuclear security and non-proliferation technologies, and for enhanced coordination of outreach to third countries.
"Technical cooperation between the United States and Europe in nuclear security and non-proliferation reflects our shared commitment to preventing the proliferation of nuclear materials and technologies," said Mark Whitney, NNSA assistant deputy administrator for non-proliferation and international security. "This agreement is an important step in achieving President Obama's goal of securing vulnerable nuclear material, preventing nuclear smuggling, and strengthening the international nuclear nonproliferation regime."

Spending cuts and VAT rise to cost 1.6m jobs, says CIPDlink

London commuters The CIPD says private sector jobs will be hit harder by the cuts than the public sector
The government's spending cuts and the rise in VAT to 20% in January will result in more than 1.6 million job losses across the public and private sectors by 2016, research suggests.
The Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development said the impact of the Spending Review had been "understated".
It predicts 725,000 public sector jobs will go - more than 100,000 higher than a government-appointed body.
It also estimates 900,000 private sector jobs will go.
The Treasury defended its spending cuts, saying: "The independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has set out its forecast showing sustained economic growth in the years ahead, with employment rising and unemployment falling."
John Philpott, chief economic adviser to the CIPD, said the number of public sector job losses cited in the Spending Review looked like "an underestimate, given what most public sector managers are telling [us]".
The OBR expects 610,000 public sector jobs to go by 2015-16. Mr Philpott puts the total number of jobs to be lost in the public sector between 2009-10 and 2015-16 at 725,000.
The number of jobs lost in the private sector due directly and indirectly from the cuts would be 650,000, with an additional 250,000 jobs to go due to the VAT increase, he estimated.
'Nonsense'

CIPD job loss predictions (by 2016)

  • Spending cuts = 650,000 private sector job losses and 725,000 public sector job losses
  • VAT rise = 250,000 private sector job losses
  • Total 1,625,000 jobs
The CIPD's predictions were criticised by some MPs during a session of the Treasury Committee.
Conservative MP Michael Fallon described the figures as "nonsense".
He criticised the CIPD's record on forecasting job losses, saying the institute had been "spectacularly wrong before" when it predicted that unemployment would reach three million before the recovery got under way.
"It didn't," Mr Fallon said. It has recently hovered around 2.5 million.
During the heated and, at times, bad-tempered exchange, the MP said: "You are less reliable than a dead octopus."
Mr Philpott replied, saying, "Actually the octopus was pretty accurate while he was still alive."
He also defended the CIPD's record and asked Mr Fallon to withdraw his accusation that its work was "nonsense".
'Tall order' Some business groups, including the CBI, have said that job creation in the private sector will be able to compensate for losses in the public sector.
However, the CIPD said that the private sector would be hit harder than the public sector.
An average of 320,000 private sector jobs a year would have to be created by 2015-16 just to keep unemployment steady at 2.5 million, it said.
In its report, the CIPD said the private sector was "perfectly capable" of creating more than 300,000 jobs a year, but only if the economy grew faster than 2.5% on average a year.
This, it said, "looks like a tall order".
The British Chambers of Commerce, however, said that in its experience, there was a huge amount of optimism among companies about the economic outlook.
"If the business community is allowed to get on with the job of creating wealth we won't see anything like the amount of job losses talked about [in this report]," director general David Frost told BBC News.
'Decisive plan' Initial estimates show that the UK economy grew by 0.8% between July and September, and by 1.2% in the previous three months.
However, most economists expect growth to slow as a result of the spending cuts.
The government has argued strongly that the cuts are necessary in order to reduce the UK's budget deficit, which is one of the highest in Europe.
Reducing debt levels will restore the confidence of international money markets in the UK, and reduce interest payments that are sucking money out of the economy, it says.
"The chancellor has set out a decisive plan to reduce the UK's unprecedented deficit and restore confidence in the UK economy," the Treasury said in a statement.
"Not taking action to tackle this problem would put the economic recovery at risk - a view shared by the International Monetary Fund, World Bank, G20, Bank of England and the OECD."
However, some economists argue that the size and the speed of the spending cuts could undermine the recovery.

 

Hurricane kills 14 people in St Lucia

Landslides have wrecked roads in St Lucia
At least 14 people are now known to have died on the Caribbean island of St Lucia after Hurricane Tomas triggered landslides, officials say.
Tourism minister Allan Chastanet told local radio that the southern town of Soufriere had been worst hit and resembled "a war zone".
The storm, which struck at the weekend, also battered the island of St Vincent.
Tomas, now a tropical storm, is veering towards Haiti where thousands are still homeless after January's earthquake.
In St Lucia, Prime Minister Stephenson King declared a state of emergency and appealed for international assistance, local media reported.
Bridges were destroyed, and some of the worst-hit communities in the south could only be reached by boat.
"Recovery efforts are very slow. Our efforts to get help to the ravished community have been weakened as a string of fires in homes brings us to our knees," a firefighter in the capital Castries told the BBC.
He said the water mains were empty and that trying to get water to the fires "was an exercise in near futility" due to the mountainous landscape.
Tomas, downgraded from a hurricane on Sunday evening, lashed islands in the eastern Caribbean with sustained winds of 75mph (120km/h).
Projected path On Tuesday it was about 355 miles (570km) south of the Haitian capital Port-au-Prince and moving west at 12mph (19km/h) with sustained winds of 50mph (85km/h).
Forecasters have warned that Tomas could strengthen again to a hurricane and that parts of Haiti are in its projected path for later in the week.
"Right now they just need to stay tuned - this is the stage to be aware," said John Cangialosi at the US Hurricane Center in Miami.
UN humanitarian co-ordinator Nigel Fisher said relief workers in Haiti were trying to gather emergency shelter, water and sanitation supplies.
"We need as much of it as possible in place before Tomas hits," he said.
Imogen Wall, of the UN Office for the Co-ordination of Humanitarian Affairs, said warehouses in Haiti were being emptied of rope and tarpaulins to protect those in the camps.
The US Navy ship Iwo Jima is steaming toward Haiti to be on hand if emergency relief is needed, US officials said.
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