Killer earthquake could hit UK at any time

A killer earthquake could hit London at any time, claiming untold numbers of lives and causing billions of pounds worth of damage, an expert warned.

An earthquake is overdue

Such a quake is long overdue after the last one occurred on April 6 1580, said seismologist Dr Roger Musson.

Centred on the Dover Straits, the magnitude 5.5 tremor shook the south-east of England, damaging property and killing two people in London.

Today, a similar ‘moderate’ event would be far more destructive, with towns and cities connected by complex infrastructure and a London population 50 times what it was in the 16th century.

Dr Musson, from the British Geological Survey, warned that quakes have a habit of repeating themselves.

‘Even the quake in 1580 was a repeat of a previous one that occurred in 1382, with almost the same epicentre, size and results.
‘What we can be sure of is that since 1580 the exposure of society to earthquakes has increased enormously. The same earthquake tomorrow would impact on far more people.

‘In terms of knowing when it is going to be, all we can say is that something that has happened twice can and probably will happen three times.
‘But whether it happens tomorrow or in two, 20 or 50 years time, that is something we don’t know.’

He pointed out that a tremor that struck the city of Newcastle in New South Wales, Australia, in 1999 caused £4 billion worth of damage.
Speaking at the British Science Festival at Aston University, Birmingham, Dr Musson said Britain sat in the middle of one of the tectonic plates that divide the Earth’s crust and was being ‘squeezed’.

The largest earthquake known to have hit Britain was in 1931 off the east coast of England and measured between magnitude 5.5 and six.

 

Brace yourself, La Nina threatens wetter, colder NW winter

by GLENN FARLEY / KING 5 News

NWCN.com

Posted on September 9, 2010 at 12:33 PM

Updated Thursday, Sep 9 at 4:42 PM

SEATTLE - Remember the winter of 2007/2008? I-5 through Chehalis was under water, clearing snow at Snoqualmie Pass was literally wearing out plows and graders. That was the start of our last La Nina, the wetter, colder weather phenomenon that's the opposite of the more common and warmer El Nino. At least that's what it all means for the Pacific Northwest.
La Nina occurs when the surface water near the equator tends to be cooler than normal in the eastern Pacific Ocean. El Nino is the opposite, as warm water pushes up against central and south America. While the engine of these weather effects seems a long way off, their effects are global.
On Thursday, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued a new advisory about La Nina, saying it strengthened during August.
"Nearly all models predict La Nina to continue at least through early 2011," the report's authors said, adding, "La Nina will begin to exert an increasing influence on the weather and climate of the United States. These impacts include an enhanced chance of above-average precipitation in the Pacific Northwest."
For other parts of the nation, La Nina is likely to bring less precipitation to the Southwest and portions of the middle and lower Mississippi Valley. It also amps up the Atlantic hurricane season.
Scientists who study this, many of whom work at NOAA's Pacific Marine Laboratory in Seattle, analyze water in the upper 300 meters of the ocean. That water is monitored by a belt of buoys strong across the Pacific, along and north and south of the equator.
But scientists are quick to point out that the effects from La Nina and its warmer cousin El Nino are about averages. According to the Climate Prediction Center, "It is likely that the peak strength of this event will be at least moderate... to strong."
But while some weather records recall the winter of 2008/2009 a neutral year, leading NOAA Research Scientist Mike McPhaden says it was a second La Nina Winter.
"In fact, the last three La Ninas have been double dippers. They've gone on for two winter seasons," says McPhaden.
2008/2009 winter saw the December snow storms that impacted the City of Seattle, and helped to cost former mayor Greg Nickels his job.
In January 2009, record levels in the Howard Hanson flood control reservoir in the Cascades damaged part of the ground that abuts the Howard Hanson Dam. At that point, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers said another storm might have forced them to release water, flooding the Green River Valley from Auburn to Lake Washington. At that point the chance of a flood was placed at one in three.
The Corps saying extensive work on the dam has reduced the chance today to one in 60. The goal is to have the dam back up to full strength to a flood chance of one in 140. The Corps says it's ready to handle the flood threat as best it can this winter.
The valley got a break and more preparation time last winter, which was a warmer and drier El Nino.

 

Hurricane Karl becomes major storm as it nears Mexicolink

A satellite image shows Hurricane Karl approaching the coast of Mexico while Hurricane Igor continues to rage to the east

Hurricane Karl has gained more strength as it moves through the Gulf of Mexico, becoming a major hurricane pushing winds of almost 120mph (195km/h).

The Category Three storm is set to hit Mexico's coast later on Friday, with the National Hurricane Center warning it could be yet more powerful by then.
Karl has already forced Mexico's Pemex oil to halt production at 14 offshore wells and evacuate staff.
To the east Hurricane Igor has weakened slightly, but remains a major storm.

Igor, which is pushing sustained speeds of 125mph, is threatening to pass directly over Bermuda on Sunday, the US-based NHC has warned.

Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and Bahamas are also likely to feel the effects of storm swells by early on Thursday, with the US East Coast affected by the weekend.
"These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions," the NHC warned.
Flash flood threat A third simultaneous hurricane, Hurricane Julia, which is towards the centre of the Atlantic Ocean, has weakened further, with sustained winds of 80mph.
Hurricane Karl is currently located about 70 miles (110km) east-northeast of the port city of Veracruz in Mexico and moving west at a speed of about 9mph.

Mexico's Veracruz state has already suffered from major flooding in the recent weeks

On Thursday, Karl made landfall as a tropical storm as it passed over the Yucatan Peninsula, dumping heavy rain and bringing down trees and power lines.
The storm is expected to make landfall again on Friday afternoon between Veracruz and Poza Rica, and the Mexican government has issued a hurricane warning for a 186-mile stretch of coast from Veracruz northwards.
The NHC has said that heavy rain from the hurricane brings the threat of "life-threatening flash flooding, especially in mountainous areas" and in coastal areas of a dangerous storm surge "which will raise water levels by as much as two to three metres above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and to the north of where the centre makes landfall".
The state of Veracruz has already experienced severe flooding in recent weeks, as Mexico's rainy season continues.
Nine people in the state have been killed by the floods and the homes of an estimated 80,000 people have been damaged.
Nationwide, 25 people have died and about one million been affected by the floods.