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UK Winter Forecast Update 2010/11link

I have been overwhelmed with the recent activity and interest that my work has been receiving, there are just a few facts that I need to clear up so everyone is fully aware of the current situation as a whole.

I am currently prediciting that the UK and Northern Europe will experience at the very least a winter similar to the last, or as I expect much worse with heavy snowfall due to the following FACTS!

1. The Gulf Stream

The gulf stream has shown signs of waining in recent years which can alter climate in the UK and Northern Europe, however this summer has shown an unusual amount of anomalies as highlighted in my previous posts.  The data screen below is part of an update that still shows a clear breakage in the gulf loop, the main engine that drives the gulf stream.

 

The forecast information for the next seven days appears to show an eddy that attempts to reconnect with the gulf stream but fails miserably before disintegrating, maybe because the current is not strong enough? It is important to remember that this is only a forecast, so I will keep you updated when I know more with accurate results, appears very strange to me though.

It is however also very easy to identify the lack of current flowing towards the UK in the above data screen.  The gulf stream is often referred to as the UK central heating system, any slight anomalies can often lead to cooling and result in our temperatures being similar to Newfoundland who are on the same latitude as us but without the advantage of the gulf stream.

The current activity of the gulf stream therefore suggests = Cooling of the Northern Hemisphere & the UK

2.  The sun has and always will control the climate and weather.  The current lack of sunspots even with todays technology remain at very low levels, in fact they place us right back in the 1700s when we was in the midst of the little ice age.  Low sunspot activity correlates very well with the cooling of the planet and is also influential on ocean circulation some 5 to 25 years later.

The current solar activity of the sun therefore suggests = Global cooling

3.  The shrinking of the upper atmosphere or better known as the thermosphere ("heat sphere") results in the rapid cooling of our planet, as it decreases in correlation with low sunspot activity.  The fact that this is called the "heat sphere" says it all really.  The current condition will allow space and volcanic debris to stay in the atmosphere for longer periods and block out the sun even further.

The current state of the thermosphere suggests = Global cooling

4.  The icelandic volcano debris in the atmosphere and the prolonged effect from the thermosphere.  It is a well known fact that volcanes can largely influence the climate on earth in terms of cooling, it is also worth noting that mount sinabung also erupted for the first time in four hundred years earlier this week in Indonesia.

The current volcanic activity in regards to the icelandic volcano suggests = Cooling of the Northern Hemisphere and the UK.

5.  The la nina always follows directly after the el nino that we have just currently experienced, which explains our slightly better than average summer earlier on in the year.  The la nina delivers ocean cooling that cools large masses of water which include the north atlantic, the immediate signs are that this is going to be huge with major effects over the next several months at the very least, this further suggests a cooling of the northern hemisphere and the UK.  The huge sea surface temperature declines below in comparison to 2009 and 2010 are a huge cause for concern.

Frascati National Laboratories, NOAA and Rutgers University. (Frascati Labs), July 29, 2010.

So there is my basis on the severity of the cold for this coming winter and next due to the lag effect that comes with some of these processes, which will in return drastically effect the summer and winter of the UK in 2011/12. 

Another area with a lot of interest is my view on the heavy snowfall, low sunspot activity often results in more cloud cover, this further cloud cover can block out the sunlight that we need and result in heavy snowfalls and further cooling, this is also connected to the thermosphere as mentioned in number 3 above due to the amount of radiation it is receiving from an already quiet sun.  Another influence of heavy snowfall for the UK is the position of the jet streams and based on last year and this year, this could also influence heavy snow.

My theory has and always will be based on the activity of the sun and how it correlates with many other factors as mentioned including ocean circualtion.  I simply take in to account what is going on around us and how it may effect our near and future climate, I then use this to correlate the likely climatic outcome which has proved successful so far on four separate occasions with the UK met office and the Nasa science behind the sunspot activity in 2008.  I am therefore suggesting that there are very cold times ahead that could even replica little ice age conditions or worse.  The following wikipedia article on the Maunder Minimum states "a connection between low sunspot activity and the little ice age, though it is believed that there was another factor that amplified its effects on Northern Europe and the UK", I suggest that the other factors are what I am mentioning right now in regards to the cold factors, we could well be heading for a new maunder minimum or little/full blown ice age.  Only time will tell but the immediate signs are not very comforting and people need to be aware as this is now a much bigger threat than any global warming!