NASA’s Sunspot Prediction Roller Coasterlink

Santa brought us a new Sunspot prediction to be added to NASA’s incredibly high series of at least five ill-fated predictions starting in 2006. NASA’s latest peak Sunspot Number for Solar Cycle #24 (SC24) is down 60% from their original, but it still seems a bit too high, judging by David Archibald’s recent WUWT posting that analogizes SC24 and SC25 to SC5 and SC6 which peaked around 50, during the cold period (Dalton minimum) of the early 1800′s.
According to Yogi Berra “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” Team leader Dr. Mausumi Dikpati of NASA’s National Center for Atmospheric Research and Solar physicist Dr. David Hathaway of the National Space Science & Technology Center have most likely learned that lesson well, having predicted, back in March 2006, that SC24 would start by the end of 2006 or early 2007 and would peak 30% to 50% higher than SC23, which would yield counts of 156 to 180. The latest prediction is 64 (I love their precision :^) but I predict it will have to be reduced further, kind of like an after-Christmas sale :^)
My graphic traces the downward progression of NASA Sunspot predictions, superimposed over NASA’s latest chart of actual Sunspot Numbers. SC23 is shown from its peak in 2000 to its demise in 2009, along with the rise of SC24 up to the latest November 2010 data. The red hoop, peaking at 90, is left over from their previous prediction and should be replaced by their new prediction in January. [Click graphic for larger version].

As indicated, SC23 peaked at a count of 120 around January 2000. It is instructive to read NASA’s March 2006 predictions (and somewhat humorous until you realize we paid for it). Some direct quotes [emphasis added]:

“The next sunspot cycle will be 30% to 50% stronger than the previous one,” [Dikpati] says… Dikpati’s prediction is unprecedented. In nearly-two centuries since the 11-year sunspot cycle was discovered, scientists have struggled to predict the size of future maxima—and failed. Solar maxima can be intense, as in 1958, or barely detectable, as in 1805, obeying no obvious pattern.
The key to the mystery, Dikpati realized years ago, is a conveyor belt on the sun…
Hathaway … explains: “First, remember what sunspots are–tangled knots of magnetism generated by the sun’s inner dynamo. A typical sunspot exists for just a few weeks. Then it decays, leaving behind a ‘corpse’ of weak magnetic fields.”…
“The top of the conveyor belt skims the surface of the sun, sweeping up the magnetic fields of old, dead sunspots. The ‘corpses’ are dragged down at the poles to a depth of 200,000 km where the sun’s magnetic dynamo can amplify them. Once the corpses (magnetic knots) are reincarnated (amplified), they become buoyant and float back to the surface.” Presto—new sunspots!
All this happens with massive slowness. “It takes about 40 years for the belt to complete one loop,” says Hathaway. The speed varies “anywhere from a 50-year pace (slow) to a 30-year pace (fast).”
When the belt is turning “fast,” it means that lots of magnetic fields are being swept up, and that a future sunspot cycle is going to be intense. This is a basis for forecasting: “The belt was turning fast in 1986-1996,” says Hathaway. “Old magnetic fields swept up then should re-appear as big sunspots in 2010-2011.“
Like most experts in the field, Hathaway has confidence in the conveyor belt model and agrees with Dikpati that the next solar maximum should be a doozy. But he disagrees with one point. Dikpati’s forecast puts Solar Max at 2012. Hathaway believes it will arrive sooner, in 2010 or 2011.
“History shows that big sunspot cycles ‘ramp up’ faster than small ones,” he says. “I expect to see the first sunspots of the next cycle appear in late 2006 or 2007—and Solar Max to be underway by 2010 or 2011.”
Who’s right? Time will tell. Either way, a storm is coming.

Did Dikpati and Hathaway honestly believed they had cracked the Sunspot code that had eluded science for two centuries? In hindsight, we all know they were wrong in their heady predictions of a “doozy”. (A doozy, according to Webster is “an extraordinary one of its kind”. NASA expected SC24 to be extraordinarily intense. But it is shaping up to be extraordinarily weak, so they at least get credit for using the correct word :^)
But, were they being honest? Well, Hathaway had long been aware of the relationship between Sunspot counts and climate, writing:

Early records of sunspots indicate that the Sun went through a period of inactivity in the late 17th century. Very few sunspots were seen on the Sun from about 1645 to 1715. … This period of solar inactivity also corresponds to a climatic period called the ‘Little Ice Age’ when rivers that are normally ice-free froze and snow fields remained year-round at lower altitudes. There is evidence that the Sun has had similar periods of inactivity in the more distant past. The connection between solar activity and terrestrial climate is an area of on-going research.

Is it possible that their prediction was skewed to the high side by the prevalent opinion, in the Inconvenient Truth year of 2006, that Global Warming was “settled science”. Could it be that they felt pressured to please their colleagues and superiors by predicting a Sunspot doozy that would presage a doozy of a warm spell?
It seems to me that NASA has a long history of delayed Sunspot predictions, particularly when the trend was downward. They seem to have waited until the actual counts forced them to do so.
Have a look at the graphic. SC23 SC24 [thanks Steeptown December 27, 2010 at 11:37 pm] was supposed to start by early 2007, but it did not. Yet, it took them until October 2008 to revise their prediction of a later start and lower peak (137) and then they dropped it further in January 2009 (predicting a peak of 104 to occur in early 2012).
I am not any kind of expert on Sunspots, yet it was clear to me, nearly two years ago, that 104 was way too high so I predicted a peak of 80 and moved the date of that peak to mid-2013. NASA eventually reduced their peak to 90, and just this month down to 64, and they moved the peak date to mid-2013. My latest prediction is 60, to occur in early 2014, but I believe I may still be a bit too high.


These articles have been produced on this web site http://europebusines.blogspot.com/

Snowiest December in a century in Berlin ~ link ~ 

Taken together, the German capital and the surrounding state of Brandenburg have on average had the most snow in about 110 years, the DWD said. In places, the snow was 40 centimetres thick. And parts of the capital may have broken records entirely, with more snow than ever before.

“In the Berlin area we have never had so much snow in December,” a DWD meteorologist in Potsdam told daily Die Welt.

The white Christmas in the capital was also a rare event. The last white Christmas Berlin experienced before Saturday’s was in 2001 when there was a modest 10 centimetres’ cover on the ground.

New York Times claims Global Warming creates our record cold weather ~ link ~  

 

This exact phenomena happened to me just the other day. I put a pot of water on the gas stove to boil, upon which time at the door was a knock, so I went to see who it was. While talking ad nauseum at the door to friendly fusion center gestapo, federal agents, TSA thugs, thought police and mattress tag enforcement agents, I suddenly remembered my pot of boiling water. Sure enough, as it came to a rolling boil just as government grant funded science predicted, it produced tons of snow all over the kitchen, creating near white-out conditions. Thank you, science!

 

 

 

Britain's 'Big Freeze' death toll hits 300 EVERY DAY ~ link ~ 

Police: Winter cold kills 127 people in Poland ~ link ~ Police say 127 people have frozen to death so far this winter in Poland. The national police said on its website Monday that eight people have died since Christmas Eve alone.

Early and severe winter weather gripped Poland in late November with heavy snowfalls disrupting road, railway and air transport. Temperatures at night fell at times to almost minus 30 degrees Celsius (minus 22 degrees Fahrenheit.)

 

  
North-east US struggles for normality after blizzards - with video ~ link ~ A warm up is coming, so that should give them a break.  Stirling    

The north-eastern US is trying to get back to normal after blizzards left tens of thousands of air passengers stranded and many people without power. Canada's Atlantic coast was also hit by the storm - the fourth in as many weeks to buffet the region.

Flights have now resumed into and out of New York, Boston and Philadelphia. But many passengers were expected to be stranded until the end of the week after some 7,000 flights were cancelled over the busy holiday travel period.

Floods force evacuations in eastern Australia

By Madeleine Coorey link

SYDNEY — Military helicopters were called in Tuesday to help evacuate hundreds of Australians stranded by rising floodwaters, as entire towns were inundated by the worst deluges in parts of the region in decades.
Torrential rains following in the wake of tropical cyclone Tasha, which last week crossed into the northeastern state of Queensland before quickly fading, have swollen rivers and flooded scores of farms and homes in the state.
Some towns saw their worst floods in 50 years, including Theodore some 400 kilometres (250 miles) northwest of Brisbane, which has been cut off for two days and whose 350 residents were being evacuated by helicopter.
Local Banana Shire Council Mayor Maureen Clancy said the town was "just a sea of water", telling Australian news agency AAP that floodwaters had even reached its evacuation centre.
"Following a request from Queensland, the government is providing two Blackhawk helicopters to assist in the evacuation of Theodore," Prime Minister Julia Gillard said in a statement.
"Australian Defence Force personnel are on stand-by to offer further support if required."
By early afternoon, the Dawson River at Theodore was at 14.59 metres (48 feet) and rising -- way beyond the town's 1956 record of 14.07 metres -- and most of the town under water.
As many as 1,000 people have been forced from their homes by the waters, which has affected large parts of central and southern Queensland, with more than 100 homes and businesses inundated.
Officials said while the rain was abating in some places, a vast amount of water upstream was yet to flow through the towns as it made its way to the sea.
"There's an enormous amount of water still coming and I think that's the problem, the unknown we've got to face," Western Downs Mayor Ray Brown told ABC Radio after touring affected communities by air.
The Queensland government has declared several areas, including Theodore, Chinchilla and Dalby, disaster zones -- a move that gives police the power to force people from their homes if necessary.
"We are facing a really significant event here right across many parts of Queensland -- a lot of flooding, a lot of people isolated, a lot of evacuations now occurring and a lot more rain to come," Emergency Services Minister Neil Roberts said.
The floods are estimated to have cost grain farmers more than 400 million US dollars, while the crisis has closed hundreds of roads, shutting down parts of major highways.
The government said that it would provide assistance to communities affected by the flooding, helping restore essential infrastructure such as roads, bridges and schools.
"While conditions across much of Queensland have eased, the threat from floodwaters remains in many areas," Gillard said, adding that while authorities had evacuated some people, other communities remained stranded.
Police have warned residents not to attempt to drive through waterlogged roads, after they were forced to rescue several people from vehicles -- including two adults and two toddlers who were forced to cling to trees after their car was swept away.
They also arrested three teenagers after they attempted to use inflatable mattresses in a "foolish and dangerous" attempt to ride floodwaters for 30 kilometres to get to Brisbane on Monday.
"It's tomfoolery ... people on li-los (inflatable mattresses) floating down rivers, it's madness, we implore people to stop the silliness," assistant police commissioner Brett Pointing said.